Forex - GBP/USD weekly outlook: October 15 - 19

Published 10/14/2012, 11:50 AM
GBP/USD
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Investing.com - The pound pushed higher against the U.S. dollar on Friday, but remained lower for the week as concerns over the weak U.K. economy and prospects for further easing by the Bank of England weighed.

GBP/USD hit 1.6020 on Tuesday, the pair’s lowest since September 11; the pair subsequently consolidated at 1.6064 by close of trade on Friday, down 0.41% on the week.

Cable is likely to find support at 1.6020, Tuesday’s low and a one-month low and resistance at 1.6141, Monday’s high.

The pound tracked gains in the euro on Friday, amid speculation that Spain was moving closer to requesting fiscal aid from its euro zone partners, following a downgrade by ratings agency Standard & Poor’s.

A bailout request by Madrid would trigger the European Central Bank’s bond purchasing program, aimed at lowering borrowing costs for struggling euro zone states.

The dollar remained little changed after data showed that U.S. consumer sentiment rose to its highest level in five years in October, while a separate report showed that producer price inflation rose more-than-forecast in September.

The University of Michigan said that its consumer sentiment index rose to a seasonally adjusted 83.1 from 78.3 in September, the highest level since September 2007.

The data came one day after the U.S. Department of Labor said the number of individuals filing for initial jobless benefits fell by 30,000 to a seasonally adjusted 339,000 in the previous week, compared to expectations for an increase of 1,000.

However, as the figures were released a spokesman for the Labor Department said one large state had not reported additional quarterly figures, accounting for a significant part of the steep decline in claims.

Sterling’s gains were limited after recent weak U.K. data undermined hopes for a sustained economic recovery and kept alive speculation over another round of easing by the BoE.

On Tuesday, the International Monetary Fund said that U.K. economy would contract by 0.4% this year before recovering to 1.1% growth in 2013, compared to its July forecast for 0.2% growth this year and 1.4% growth in 2013.

In the U.K., official data showed that manufacturing production in the U.K. fell by 1.1% in August, compared to expectations for a 0.6% drop.

Another report showed that the U.K. trade deficit widened to GBP9.8 billion in August, against expectations for a deficit of GBP8.5 billion.

In the week ahead, markets will continue to continue to focus on whether Spain will formally request a bailout and if international creditors will extend loans to Greece as the country struggles to meet deficit reduction targets.

Meanwhile, the U.S. is to release a flurry of data, including reports on retail sales, manufacturing activity in New York and Philadelphia, initial jobless claims and housing starts, among others.
 
Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, October 15

The U.K. is to publish industry data on house price inflation, an important indicator of demand in the housing sector.

The U.S. is to produce official data on retail sales, the primary indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of economic activity. In addition, the U.S. is to release data on manufacturing activity in New York state, as well as official data on business inventories.

Tuesday, October 16

The U.K. is to release official data on consumer and producer price inflation and hold an auction of 30-year government bonds.

The U.S. is to release government data on consumer price inflation and industrial production. The U.S. is also to produce official data on treasury long-term purchases and the capacity utilization rate.

Wednesday, October 17

The U.K. is to publish a report on the change in the number of people claiming unemployment benefits and the unemployment rate, while the BoE is to publish the minutes of its most recent policy setting meeting.

Later Wednesday, the U.S. is to publish government data on building permits, an excellent gauge of future construction activity, as well as data on housing starts, a leading indicator of economic health. The U.S. is also to produce official data on crude oil stockpiles.

Thursday, October 18

The U.K. is to produce official data on retail sales, the primary indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of economic activity.

The U.S. is to publish weekly government data on initial jobless claims, as well as a report on manufacturing activity in Philadelphia, a leading indicator of economic strength.

Friday, October 19

The U.K. is to produce official data on public sector borrowing.

The U.S. is to round up the week with industry data on existing home sales, a leading indicator of economic health.



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