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Forex - GBP/USD weekly outlook: November 25 - 29

Published 11/24/2013, 10:19 AM
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Investing.com - The pound pushed higher against the dollar on Friday, tracking gains in the euro following the release of stronger-than-forecast German business confidence data.

GBP/USD ended Friday’s session at 1.6225, the highest since October 25, up from Thursday’s close of 1.6197. For the week, the pair gained 0.69%.

Cable is likely to find support at 1.6150 and resistance at 1.6255, the high of October 23.

Germany’s Ifo business climate index rose to 109.3 in November, its highest level since April 2012, from 107.4 in October. Economists had expected the index to tick up to 107.7.

The data pointed to a broad based recovery in the euro zone’s largest economy and eased concerns over the possibility of further rate cuts by the European Central Bank.

Sterling was lower against the euro following the release of the data, with EUR/GBP rising 0.41% to 0.8355 at the close, from 0.8320 on Thursday.

Elsewhere, the pound rose to its highest level against the yen since October 2008, with GBP/JPY settling at 164.29, up from 163.84 on Thursday. The yen came under broad selling pressure amid heightened expectations that the Bank of Japan could implement a fresh round of monetary easing early next year.

In the U.K., Wednesday’s minutes of the Bank of England’s November meeting said that recent economic data pointed to a sustained recovery since the bank’s August inflation report, but warned that low levels of inflation within the euro zone could act as a drag on growth.

The minutes also indicated that there were questions over the “durability” of the U.K. recovery past the end of this year and said there was a case for not raising interest rates immediately when the 7% unemployment threshold was reached.

Meanwhile, the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s October meeting said the bank could start scaling back its USD85 billion-a-month asset purchase program in the “coming months” if the economy continues to improve as expected.

In the week ahead, the U.S. is to release a series of reports on the housing sector, as well as data on consumer confidence and durable goods orders. BoE Governor Mark Carney is to testify on inflation to parliament’s Treasury Committee and the bank is to publish its semi-annual financial stability report.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, November 25

The U.S. is to release private sector data on pending home sales, a leading indicator of economic health.

Tuesday, November 26

BoE Governor Mark Carney and several BoE policymakers are to testify on the outlook for inflation and economic growth before parliament’s Treasury Committee.

The U.S. is to produce data on building permits, a leading indicator of future construction activity as well as a report on housing starts. The nation is also to release private sector data on consumer confidence and house price inflation.

Wednesday, November 27

The U.K. is to release revised data on third quarter economic growth, as well as preliminary data on business investment.

The U.S. is to release data on durable goods orders, a leading indicator of production, as well as a report on manufacturing activity in the Chicago region and revised data on consumer sentiment. The Labor Department is to release the weekly report on initial jobless claims one day ahead of schedule due to Thursday’s Thanksgiving holiday.

Thursday, November 28

The BoE is to publish its twice yearly financial stability report. BoE Governor Mark Carney is to hold a press conference about the report.
Markets in the U.S. will be closed for the Thanksgiving holiday.

Friday, November 29

The U.K. is to release data on net lending to individuals and mortgage approvals.




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