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Forex - GBP/USD weekly outlook: November 15-19

Published 11/14/2010, 10:04 AM
GBP/USD
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Investing.com – Last week saw the pound close sharply lower against the U.S. dollar as escalating concerns about Ireland's ability to repay its debt prompted a flight from risk into the safety of the dollar.

GBP/USD hit 0.7697 on Friday, the pair’s lowest since November 2; the pair subsequently consolidated at 0.7730 by close of trade, plunging 2.60% over the week.

Cable is likely to find support at 0.7633, the low of November 2 and resistance at 0.7872, last Thursday’s high.

Renewed concerns about Europe's fiscal strength, this time with Ireland in focus, saw Irish government bond yields soar to record highs amid concerns that the country would struggle to repay its bondholders.

The problems facing Ireland were also seen as a potential negative for sterling given that some U.K. banks are exposed and also due to the potential negative impact on U.K. exports to the country.

Earlier in the week, speculation of near-term quantitative easing by the Bank of England receded after the bank said the risks on the upside and the downside were evenly balanced. However the bank said that the outlook remained highly uncertain and it stood ready to change policy in either direction.

Next week, the U.S. is to release a flurry of data with reports on retail sales, inflation, manufacturing, foreign investment and building permits. The country is also to release key weekly data on initial jobless claims and the chairman of the Federal Reserve is to speak at a public engagement.

In the U.K. the Bank of England is to publish the minutes of November’s monetary policy meeting. The country is also to publish official data on employment, retail sales and inflation.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, November 15

The U.K. will begin the week with a report on house prices from the country’s largest property website, Rightmove. 

Also Monday, the U.S. is to publish key monthly data on retail sales, the primary gauge of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity. In addition, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York is to publish its monthly manufacturing index, a leading indicator of economic health. The country is also to publish data on business inventories.

Tuesday, November 16

The U.K. is to release official data on consumer price inflation, a leading indicator of economic growth, while the Bank of England is to publish its inflation letter which gives insight into the future direction of monetary policy.

Meanwhile, the U.S. is to publish key data on producer prices, a leading indicator of consumer inflation, as well as government data on the difference in value between foreign long-term securities purchased by U.S. citizens and U.S. long-term securities purchased by foreigners. The country is also to release official data on industrial production, a leading indicator of economic health as well as data on the capacity utilization rate.

Wednesday, November 17

In the U.K., the Bank of England is to publish the minutes of the November meeting of the monetary policy committee. The minutes provide as in-depth insight into the economic conditions that influenced the committee's decision on where to set interest rates.

The country will also produce data on claimant count change, the change in the number of people unemployed during the previous month, as well as data on the country’s overall unemployment rate and average cash earnings.

Later in the day, the U.S. is to publish official data on consumer price inflation, which accounts for the majority of overall inflation. The country is also to release official data on building permits and housing starts, both leading indicators of health in the housing sector as well as a report on crude oil inventories.

Thursday, November 18

The U.K. is to release preliminary data on mortgage approvals, as well as official data on retail sales, a primary gauge of consumer spending, while the Bank of England is to publish data on public sector borrowing. Later in the day, the country is to produce industry data on industrial order expectations, an important indicator of economic health.

Meanwhile, the U.S. is to release key weekly data on initial jobless claims, while the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia is due to release a report on the city’s manufacturing sector. The country is also due to publish an index of leading economic indicators, designed to predict the future direction of the economy, as well as a report on natural gas inventories.

Friday, November 19

The chairman of the Federal Reserve Ben Bernanke is to speak at a conference in Frankfurt, his comments will be closely watched for any clues to the future direction of monetary policy.

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