Forex - GBP/USD weekly outlook: March 26 - 30

Published 03/25/2012, 11:22 AM
GBP/USD
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Investing.com - The pound was higher against the U.S. dollar on Friday after the release of disappointing U.S. housing data, regaining the ground lost the previous day, but concerns over the possibility of fresh easing measures by the Bank of England continued to weigh.

GBP/USD 1.5769 on Thursday, the pair’s lowest since March 16; the pair subsequently consolidated at 1.5868 by close of trade on Friday, sliding 0.17% over the week.

Cable is likely to find support at 1.5769, Thursday’s low and resistance at 1.5922, the high of March 21 and an almost three-week high.

The dollar weakened on Friday, after official data showed that U.S. new home sales fell for a second month in February, indicating that the recovery in the housing market remains uneven.

The Commerce Department said new home sales dropped 1.6% to a 313,000 annual pace, the slowest since October, from a 318,000 annual rate in January and against expectations for an increase to 325,000.

Risk appetite was also boosted after euro zone finance ministers said they were moving closer to agreeing on the lending capacity of the region’s permanent bailout fund, the European Financial Stability Facility.

Improved risk appetite helped sterling recoup losses from the previous session, which came after government data showed that U.K. retail sales posted the largest drop in nine months in February and were revised down for the previous month.

Elsewhere Thursday, euro zone data showed that manufacturing activity in the region slumped unexpectedly in March, remaining in contraction territory for the eighth consecutive month, while service sector activity declined to the lowest level in four months, fuelling fears that the euro zone is entering a recession.

Sentiment on the pound had been hit on Wednesday, after the minutes of the BoE’s March policy meeting which showed that two policymakers voted in favor of enlarging the central bank’s quantitative easing program this month.

The pound was largely unaffected by Wednesday’s annual U.K. budget statement, but investors remained cautious as harsh austerity measures look likely to weigh on growth. Ratings agency Fitch said the budget showed a commitment to deficit reduction and would not impact the U.K.’s triple-A rating.

In the coming week, investors will be looking ahead to Friday’s meeting of euro zone finance ministers to discuss the scale of the region’s bailout fund, the EFSF.

 The U.S. is to release data on consumer confidence, pending homes sales, and factory output, all of which will be closely watched in order to gauge the strength of the U.S. economic recovery, while the U.K. is to release final data on fourth quarter growth.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, March 26

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is scheduled to speak at the National Association for Business Economists 2012 Policy Conference. The U.S. is also to publish industry data on pending home sales, a key gauge of economic health.

Tuesday, March 27

The U.K. is to release a report by the Nationwide Building Society on house price inflation, a leading measure of the housing industry’s health, followed by industry data on retail sales.

The U.S. is to produce a Standard & Poor’s/Case Shiller composite-20 house price inflation report, as well as industry data on consumer confidence.

Later in the day, Fed Chairman Bernanke is due to deliver the third part of a lecture titled "The Federal Reserve and its Role in Today's Economy" at the George Washington University School of Business, in Washington.

Wednesday, March 28

The U.K. is to release official data on the current account and a final report on gross domestic product, the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary gauge of the economy’s health.

The U.S. is to publish government data on durable goods orders, a leading indicator of production, followed by a report on crude oil stockpiles.

Thursday, March 29

The BoE is to release data on credit conditions and on net lending to individuals.

Later Thursday, the U.S. is to publish government data on unemployment claims, a key signal of overall economic health, as well as final data on fourth quarter GDP. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke is also due to speak.   

Friday, March 30

The U.K. is to publish a Gfk report on consumer confidence, a leading indicator of economic health.

The U.S. is to round up the week with government data on personal consumption expenditures and personal spending as well as industry data on the purchasing managers’ index in Chicago. In addition, the University of Michigan is to release revised data on consumer sentiment.

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