Forex - GBP/USD weekly outlook: January 23-27

Published 01/22/2012, 10:01 AM
GBP/USD
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Investing.com - The pound climbed to a two-week high against the U.S. dollar on Friday, as risk appetite was bolstered by hopes for an agreement to help Greece avoid a default as well as improving U.S. economic data.

GBP/USD hit 1.5276 on Monday, the week’s low; the pair subsequently consolidated at 1.5574 by close of trade on Friday, jumping 1.9% over the week.

Cable is likely to find support at 1.5414, Thursday’s low and resistance at 1.5668, the high of January 4.

On Friday, officials said Greece was nearing an agreement with creditors on a debt restructuring deal, aimed at erasing EUR100 billion of the country’s EUR360 billion debt burden and securing another tranche of international aid.

Meanwhile, concerns over euro zone borrowing costs eased after auctions of Spanish and French government debt on Thursday met with solid investor demand at broadly lower yields.

Also Thursday, the U.S. Department of Labor the number of people who filed for unemployment assistance in the week ending January 13 declined unexpectedly, falling to the lowest level in almost four years.

Earlier in the week, official data showed that manufacturing activity in the New York region expanded at the fastest pace in nine months in January.

Other reports showed that U.S. consumer price inflation was flat in December, while U.S. housing starts dropped 4.1% to a 657,000 annual rate last month.

In the U.K., data on Friday showed retail sales rebounded strongly in December, increasing 0.6% after a 0.5% drop in November as retailers cut prices to entice Christmas shoppers.

The data came after a U.K. government report on Tuesday showed that the annualized rate of consumer price inflation declined sharply in December, falling to 4.2% from 4.8% the previous month.

The steep decline supported the Bank of England’s view that inflation will fall off sharply in 2012, giving the bank leeway to ease monetary policy further.

In the coming week, investors will be eyeing developments in the euro zone, with finance ministers from the single currency bloc meeting in Brussels on Monday, with Greece’s debt restructuring deal likely to be at the top of the agenda.

Markets will also be awaiting preliminary data from both the U.K. and the U.S. on fourth quarter gross domestic product, while the BoE is to publish the minutes of this month’s policy-setting meeting, which may indicate a planned expansion of the bank’s asset purchase program.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets. The guide skips Monday, as there are no relevant events on this day.

Tuesday, January 24

The U.K. is to release official data on public sector net borrowing, while BoE Governor Mervyn King is due to speak; his comments will be closely watched for any clues regarding the future possible direction of monetary policy.

Wednesday, January 25

The U.K. is produce preliminary data on GDP, the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary gauge of the economy's health, as well as industry data on mortgage approvals and industrial order expectations. In addition, the BoE is to publish the minutes of its January policy setting meeting.

The U.S. is to release industry data on pending home sales, a leading indicator of demand in the housing market, as well as official data on crude oil stockpiles. The Federal Reserve is to announce the federal funds rate and publish its official rate statement, which contains important insights into current economic conditions from the bank’s perspective.

Elsewhere, the World Economic Forum is to begin its five-day annual meeting in Davos in Switzerland.

Thursday, January 26

The U.K. is to publish industry data on realized sales.

In the U.S., official data is to be produced on durable goods, an important indicator of production, as well as on unemployment claims and new home sales, a key gauge of economic health.

Friday, January 27

The U.S. is to round up the week with preliminary data on the country’s fourth quarter GDP and GDP price index, followed by a revised data from the University of Michigan on consumer sentiment and inflation expectations.


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