Forex - GBP/USD weekly outlook: February 6 - 10

Published 02/05/2012, 10:03 AM
GBP/USD
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Investing.com - The pound ended the week higher against the U.S. dollar on Friday, but trimmed some of the week’s gains after stronger-than-expected U.S. employment data dented expectations for a fresh round of easing by the Federal Reserve.

GBP/USD hit 1.5882 on Wednesday, the pair’s highest since November 18; the pair subsequently consolidated at 1.5811 by close of trade on Friday, still up 0.49% on the week.

Cable is likely to find support at 1.5705, Wednesday’s low and resistance at 1.5882, Wednesday’s high and a two-and-a-half month high.

The U.S. Department of Labor said nonfarm payrolls rose by 243,000 last month, the fastest increase in nine months, after a revised 203,000 gain in December. Economists had expected the U.S. economy to add 150,000 jobs in January. The unemployment rate unexpectedly declined to a three-year low of 8.3%.

A separate report showing a greater-than-expected expansion in the U.S. service sector in January also boosted the greenback.

In testimony to the House Budget Committee in Washington on Thursday Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said the economy has shown “signs of improvement” but warned that the outlook remained “uncertain”.

In the U.K., data on Friday showed that the service sector expanded at the fastest pace in 10 months in January. The data came after reports earlier in the week which showed that the manufacturing sector unexpectedly returned to expansion territory last month while the construction sector also expanded, albeit at a slower-than-forecast rate.

The upbeat tone of the reports eased concerns that the U.K. economy is slipping into a recession but did little to quell speculation the Bank of England may announce a fresh round of quantitative easing this week in an attempt to shore up growth.

Elsewhere, investors remained wary amid uncertainty over delays in negotiations on a debt restructuring deal for Greece.

Greece needs to reach an agreement with its private creditors on a debt swap deal in order to secure its next tranche of bailout funds in time to avert a default when a EUR14.5 billion bond repayment comes due on March 20.

In the week ahead, investors will be watching developments in the euro zone, with European leaders holding a string of meetings to discuss Greece’s bailout and the financial guarantees for the European Financial Stability Facility, the euro zone’s new bailout fund.

Meanwhile, the BoE and the European Central Bank are both to hold their policy setting meetings on Thursday.

In the U.S., Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke is to testify before the Senate budget committee in Washington.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, February 6

The U.K. is to publish industry data on house price inflation, a leading indicator of the housing industry’s health.

Tuesday, February 7

The U.K. is to produce industry data on retail sales, which provides an important insight into consumer spending.

In the U.S., Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke is due to testify on the economic outlook and federal budget situation before the Senate Budget Committee in Washington.

Wednesday, February 8

The U.S. is to publish a government report on crude oil inventories.

Thursday, February 9

The U.K. is to release official data on manufacturing production, a leading indicator of economic health, as well as official data on the country’s trade balance, the difference in value between imports and exports over the month. The U.K. National Institute of Economic and Social Research is to publish its monthly estimate on gross domestic product.

Also Thursday, the BoE is to announce its benchmark interest rate.

Later in the day, the U.S. is to publish government data on unemployment claims, an important signal of overall economic health.

Friday, February 10

The U.K. is to produce official data on producer price inflation input, a key gauge of consumer inflation.

The U.S. is to round up the week with official data on the country’s trade balance, as well as preliminary data from the University of Michigan on consumer sentiment and inflation expectations.

Later in the day, Fed Chair Ben Bernanke is due to speak about the housing market at the 2012 National Association of Homebuilders International Builders show.


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