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Forex - GBP/USD weekly outlook: February 16 - 20

Published 02/15/2015, 10:53 AM
Pound ends week higher against softer dollar
GBP/USD
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Investing.com - The pound rose to fresh six week highs against the broadly weaker dollar on Friday after data showing U.S consumer sentiment unexpectedly deteriorated this month.

GBP/USD hit highs of 1.5422, the most since January 2 and was last at 1.5394. For the week, the pair gained 1.44%.

The greenback slid after the preliminary reading of the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index fell to 93.6, down from January’s final reading of 98.1. Economists had forecast an unchanged figure.

The report came a day after data showing that U.S. retail sales unexpectedly fell 0.8% last month after dropping 0.9% in December, indicating that consumer spending remained sluggish at the start of the year.

The weak data prompted investors to reassess expectations for a mid-year rate hike by the Federal Reserve and to trim back long positions in the greenback ahead of a three-day holiday weekend.

Demand for sterling continued to be underpinned after the Bank of England played down the threat of deflation in its quarterly inflation report on Thursday, despite warning that inflation would likely fall below zero in the first half of the year.

BoE Governor Mark Carney said there was no threat of persistent deflation as the decline in inflation was largely due to falling petrol, food and energy prices.

In a change to its forward guidance, the bank also said it would now consider cutting interest rates below 0.5% if inflation dipped more deeply into negative territory than expected.

In the coming week, investors will be focusing on Wednesday’s minutes of the latest Federal Reserve meeting for further indications on when the Fed may start to hike interest rates.

Tuesday’s U.K. inflation report and Wednesday’s employment data will also be closely watched.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, February 16

Markets in the U.S. are to remain closed for the Presidents Day holiday.

Tuesday, February 17

The U.K. is to release data on consumer price inflation.

The U.S. is to release data on manufacturing activity in New York State as well as a private sector survey of home builders.

Wednesday, February 18

The U.K. is to publish its latest employment report, which includes a look at the unemployment rate, the change in the number of people employed and average earnings. At the same time, the BoE is to publish the minutes of its January meeting.

The U.S. is to release a string of economic reports, including data on producer prices, housing starts, building permits and industrial production. Later in the day, the Federal Reserve is to publish the minutes of its January meeting.

Thursday, February 19

The U.K. is to produce private sector data on industrial order expectations.

The U.S. is to publish a report on manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia region and the weekly government figures on initial jobless claims.

Friday, February 20

The U.K. is to release data on retail sales, as well as a report on public sector borrowing.

The U.S. is to round up the week with preliminary data on manufacturing activity.

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