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Forex - GBP/USD weekly outlook: February 13 - 17

Published 02/12/2012, 07:19 AM
GBP/USD
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Investing.com - The pound ended the week down against the U.S. dollar on Friday, as uncertainty over a vote on a Greek bailout deal weighed on risk appetite, while the Bank of England’s decision to implement fresh quantitative easing measures also weighed.

GBP/USD hit 1.5928 on Wednesday, the pair’s highest since November 15; the pair subsequently consolidated at 1.5752 by close of trade on Friday, slipping 0.31% over the week.

Cable is likely to find support at 1.5705, the low of February 1 and resistance at 1.5928, Wednesday’s high and a 12-week high.

Market sentiment was boosted on Thursday, after Greek political leaders reached a long awaited consensus on austerity measures demanded by international creditors in exchange for a new bailout worth EUR130 billion.

But sterling was down against the greenback on Friday, amid uncertainty over whether Greece’s parliament would pass a vote on the harsh spending cuts in order to secure the aid package and avert a disorderly default.

Elsewhere, the pound gained ground against the broadly weaker euro, despite a fresh round of quantitative easing announced by the BoE on Thursday.

BoE policymakers voted to increase the bank’s quantitative easing program by GBP50 billion, citing the "significant margin" of slack in the British economy and left interest rates unchanged at 0.5% in a widely expected decision.

The pound found some support after policymakers said recent economic data indicated an improved outlook for the U.K. economy and added that they expected inflation to fall below 2% in the medium term without more monetary easing.

Earlier Thursday, official data showed that manufacturing production in the U.K. rose significantly more-than-expected in December, increasing for the first time in three months, while industrial production also rose more-than-expected.

A separate report showed that the U.K. goods trade deficit narrowed more-than-expected in January.

In the U.S., data on Thursday showed that U.S. jobless claims fell to an almost four-year low in the previous week.

The U.S. Department of Labor said the number of individuals filing for initial jobless benefits fell to a seasonally adjusted 358,000, beating expectations for a decline to 370,000.

Jobless claims have remained below 400,000, a level historically associated with an improving labor market, in 13 of the past 15 weeks.

In the week ahead, euro zone finance ministers are expected to meet on Tuesday to discuss Greece’s bailout deal, which should lead to a final approval by the country’s international lenders, including the International Monetary Fund and the European Central Bank.

Investors will also be awaiting official data on U.S. retail sales to gauge the strength of the U.S. economic recovery and the BoE's inflation report.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets. The guide skips Monday, as there are no relevant events on this day.

Tuesday, February 14

The U.K. is to publish industry data on house price balance, a key gauge of housing inflation, as well as report on consumer price inflation, which accounts for a majority of overall inflation. The country is also to produce official data on retail price inflation, followed by the BoE inflation report.

Also Tuesday, the U.S. is to produce official data on retail sales, the primary gauge of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity. The country is also to publish reports on import prices and business inventories, a signal of future business spending.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner is also due to speak later in the day; his comments will be closely watched for clues to the future possible direction of monetary policy.

Wednesday, February 15

The U.K. is to produce official data on the claimant count change, an important signal of overall economic health, as well as a report on the unemployment rate. Later in the day, the BoE is to publish its Inflation Report, which provides valuable insight into the bank's view of economic conditions and inflation. Governor Mervyn King is due to hold a press conference to discuss the report.

The U.S. is to release a report on the Empire State Manufacturing index, a leading indicator of economic health, followed by data on net foreign purchases of long-term securities. The Federal Reserve is also to publish data on its capacity utilization rate, an important indicator of consumer inflation, as well as on industrial production before releasing the minutes of its latest policy meeting later in the day. The country is also to produce an official report on crude oil stockpiles.

Thursday, February 16

The U.S. is to publish government data on building permits, an important gauge of future construction activity, and housing starts, as well as reports on producer price inflation and unemployment claims. In addition, the country is to produce data on manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia area.

Later in the day, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is due to speak; his comments will be closely watched for clues to the future possible direction of monetary policy.

Friday, February 17

The U.K. is to publish a report by the Nationwide Building Society on consumer confidence, followed by official data on retail sales.

The U.S. is to round up the week with a government report on consumer price inflation, which accounts for the majority of overall inflation.


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