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Forex - GBP/USD weekly outlook: December 17 - 21

Published 12/16/2012, 10:39 AM
GBP/USD
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Investing.com - The pound hit two-month highs against the U.S. dollar on Friday, as unexpectedly weak U.S. inflation data underlined the argument for ongoing monetary easing by the Federal Reserve.

GBP/USD hit 1.6177 on Friday; the pair’s highest since October 5; the pair subsequently consolidated at 1.6171 by close of trade, 0.84% higher for the week.

Cable is likely to find support at 1.6083, Thursday’s low and resistance at 1.6242, the high of September 27.

The dollar weakened broadly on Friday after weak U.S. inflation data warranted continued monetary easing by the Federal Reserve.

The Department of Labor said U.S. consumer inflation fell 0.3% in November, down for the first time in six months on the back of lower gasoline prices, bringing the annualized rate of inflation to 1.8%.

The Federal Reserve said Wednesday that interest rates would remain close to zero as long as inflation forecasts remain near the bank’s 2% target and until the U.S. unemployment rate declines to 6.5% or less.

The U.S. central bank also said it would continue to purchase USD85 billion a month of government bonds and mortgage based securities in order to shore up the economic recovery.

Investor focus shifted back to negotiations to avoid the U.S. fiscal cliff following the central bank announcement, amid concerns that the automatic tax hikes and spending cuts due to take effect on January 1st could derail the U.S. recovery.

Sterling remained supported against the dollar but slid to an almost two-week low against the euro on Friday after ratings agency Standard & Poor's put the U.K.'s triple-A rating on negative outlook, and warned that it saw a one-in-three chance for a downgrade in the next two years.

In the week ahead, investors will be continuing to monitor the progress on talks in Washington on the fiscal cliff. Market participants will also be awaiting U.K. government data on inflation and retail sales, as well as Wednesday’s Bank of England minutes.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, December 17

The U.K. is to release industry data on house price inflation, an important indicator of demand in the housing sector.

The U.S. is to publish official data on manufacturing activity in New York State, a leading indicator of economic health, as well as a report on the balance of domestic and foreign investment in U.S. securities.

Tuesday, December 18

The U.K. is to release official data on consumer price inflation, which accounts for a majority of overall inflation.

The U.S. is to produce government data on the current account.

Wednesday, December 19

The BoE is to publish the minutes of its most recent policy meeting, which contain important insights into current and future economic conditions from the bank’s perspective. The U.K. is also to release industry data on retail sales.

The U.S. is to publish government data on building permits, an excellent gauge of future construction activity, as well as data on housing starts.
The country is also to release official data on crude oil stockpiles.

Thursday, December 20

The U.K. is to produce official data on retail sales, the leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity.

The U.S. is to release the weekly report on initial jobless claims, as well as revised data on third quarter growth and a report on manufacturing activity in Philadelphia. In addition, the U.S. is to publish industry data on existing home sales, a leading indicator of economic health.

Friday, December 21

The U.K. is to produce government data on the current accounts and on public sector net borrowing, in addition to revised data on third quarter growth.

The U.S. is to round up the week with revised data on consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan, as well as government data on personal income and spending.



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