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Forex - GBP/USD weekly outlook: December 1 - 5

Published 11/30/2014, 10:17 AM
Sterling ends week near 14-month lows against dollar
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Investing.com - The pound fell against the dollar on Friday, closing in on 14-month lows as a selloff in oil prices fuelled fears over disinflation, bolstering demand for the greenback.

GBP/USD touched lows of 1.5614 and was at 1.5640 late Friday, off 0.61% for the day, and not far from the 14-month trough of 1.5588 reached on November 19.

Oil prices tumbled on Friday following Thursday’s decision by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries not to cut output quotas, fuelling fears over a global supply glut.

The move sparked fears over the impact of growing deflationary pressures on the global economic recovery.

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, was up 0.45% to 88.41 late Friday, not far from the four-year highs of 88.52 set on Monday.

Elsewhere, sterling fell to one week lows against the euro on Friday, with EUR/GBP up 0.46% in late trade despite data showing that the annual rate of euro area inflation slowed to a five year low of 0.3% this month.

The weak data was seen as increasing the likelihood that the European Central Bank will implement quantitative easing measures in a bid to spur growth and stave off the threat of deflation.

In the U.K., data on Friday showed that the housing market continued to slow this month. Mortgage lender Nationwide reported that house prices rose by 0.3% after a 0.5% increase in October. That brought the annual rate of house price inflation down to 8.5% from 9.0% last month.

Earlier in the week, official data confirmed that U.K. third quarter growth was in line with the preliminary estimates released in October.

The U.K. economy grew 0.7% in the July-to-September period and expanded 3.0% on a year-over-year basis.

In the week ahead, investors will be focusing on surveys of the U.K. services, manufacturing and construction sectors, while Friday’s U.S. jobs report for November will also be closely watched.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, December 1

The U.K. is to publish its manufacturing index as well as data on net lending to individuals.

In the U.S., the Institute of Supply Management is to release data on manufacturing activity.

Tuesday, December 2

The U.K. is to publish a report on construction sector activity.

Wednesday, December 3

The U.K. is to release what will be a closely watched report on service sector growth.

The U.S. is to release the ADP report on private sector job creation, while the ISM is to publish a report on U.S. service sector activity later in the day.

Thursday, December 4

The U.K. is to publish private sector data on house price inflation.

Later Thursday, the BoE is to announce its benchmark interest rate.

The U.S. is to release the weekly report on initial jobless claims.

Friday, December 5

The U.S. is to round up the week with the closely watched government report on nonfarm payrolls, the unemployment rate and average earnings, as well as a report on factory orders.

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