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Forex - GBP/USD weekly outlook: August 3 - 7

Published 08/02/2015, 10:38 AM
Pound gains against dollar after sluggish U.S. wage growth data
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Investing.com - The pound moved higher against the dollar on Friday after data showing that U.S. wage growth stagnated in the second quarter prompted investors to push back expectations on the timing of a U.S. rate hike.

The Department of Labor reported that the U.S. employment-cost index, a measure of workers’ wages and benefits, rose just 0.2% in the second quarter. It was the smallest quarterly increase since records began in 1982 and was well below economists’ expectations of a 0.6% increase.

The unexpectedly weak data tempered expectations for a rate hike in the coming months.

GBP/USD hit highs of 1.5678 immediately following the report, before falling back to 1.5627 in late trade, up 0.17% for the day. For the month, the pair gained 0.37%.

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, settled at 0.30% to 97.32 late Friday after falling as low as 96.38. The index still ended the month with gains of 1.86%.

The dollar had strengthened earlier in the week after the Federal Reserve indicated that interest rates could rise in the coming months, possibly as early as September, and after data showing U.S. economic growth accelerated in the second quarter.

The U.S. economy expanded at an annual rate of 2.3% in the three months to June the Commerce Department said Thursday. First quarter growth was revised up to 0.6% from a previously reported contraction of 0.2%.

Meanwhile, sterling was lower against the euro, with EUR/GBP up 0.31% to 0.7029 in late trade.

In the week ahead, investors will be turning their attention to the latest U.S. employment report, which could reinforce expectations for higher interest rates.

Market participants will also be looking ahead to Thursday, when the Bank of England will announce its latest interest rate decision; publish the minutes of the monetary policy meeting; and present the latest quarterly forecasts for economic growth and inflation.

The three events had been held separately previously.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, August 3

The U.K. is to publish its manufacturing index.

The U.S. is to release data on personal income and expenditure.

Later Monday, the Institute of Supply Management is to release data on manufacturing activity.

Tuesday, August 4

The U.K. is to release its construction index.

The U.S. is to report on factory orders.

Wednesday, August 5

The U.K. is to release its closely watched report on service sector activity.

The U.S. is to release the ADP report on private sector hiring, which is to be followed by official data on the trade balance.

Later in the day the ISM is to release data on service sector activity.

Thursday, August 6

The U.K. is to publish a report on industrial production.

Later in the day, the BoE is to announce its benchmark interest rate and publish its monetary policy meeting minutes. The Bank is also to publish its quarterly inflation report. Governor Mark Carney is to hold a press conference about the report.

Friday, August 7

The U.S. is to round up the week with the closely watched government report on nonfarm payrolls.

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