Forex - GBP/USD weekly outlook: August 20 - 24

Published 08/19/2012, 10:13 AM
GBP/USD
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Investing.com - The pound turned lower against the U.S. dollar on Friday, erasing almost all of the week’s gains as upbeat economic data out of the U.S. dampened expectations for more easing by the Federal Reserve.

GBP/USD hit 1.5743 on Thursday, the pair’s highest since July 30; the pair subsequently consolidated at 1.5693 by close of trade on Friday, up just 0.12% on the week.

Cable is likely to find support at 1.5635, Thursday’s low and near-term resistance at 1.5743, Thursday’s high.

Data on Friday showed that the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index for August hit its highest level in three months, coming in at 73.6 from 72.3 in July and outstripping forecasts for a reading of 72.4.

Meanwhile, the Conference Board reported that its index of leading indicators rose more-than-expected in July.

The data came after better-than-expected U.S. retail sales and industrial production data earlier in the week tempered expectations for another round of quantitative easing by the U.S. central bank.

The pound had been higher earlier in the session, as a string of better-than-forecast data earlier in the week fuelled hopes that the U.K. economy is not as weak as was feared.

Data on Thursday showed that U.K. retail sales rose 0.3% in July, defying expectations for a 0.1% decline, while figures for June were revised up to a 0.8% gain from a previously reported increase of 0.1%.

One day earlier, the minutes of the Bank of England’s August meeting showed that policymakers voted unanimously to keep U.K. interest rates steady at 0.5% and to leave the quantitative easing program unchanged at GBP375 billion.

Also Wednesday, official data showed that the number of people claiming unemployment benefits in the U.K. fell unexpectedly in July and the nation’s unemployment rate ticked down to 8% from 8.1% in June.

The pound had come under pressure in recent week as sustained concerns over the outlook for the U.K. economy stoked fears that weak economic data could prompt the BoE to implement another round of stimulus measures.

In the week ahead, market participants will be awaiting Wednesday’s minutes of the Federal Reserve’s August meeting for any indications on the future possible direction of monetary policy.

The U.S. is also to release closely watched reports on the housing sector and manufacturing production.

Meanwhile, the U.K. is to release revised data on second quarter growth, amid speculation that gross domestic product could be upgraded from a 0.7% quarterly contraction.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, August 20

The U.K. is to release industry data on house price inflation, a leading indicator of the housing industry’s health.

Tuesday, August 21

The U.K. is to release official data on public sector net borrowing, followed by industry data on industrial order expectations, a key gauge of economic health.

Wednesday, August 22

The Federal Reserve is to produce the minutes of its August policy meeting, amid growing speculation over whether the U.S. central bank will soon announce a third round of quantitative easing. The U.S. is also to release government data on crude oil stockpiles.

Thursday, August 23

The U.K. is to publish industry data on mortgage approvals, a leading indicator of housing market demand, as well as industry data on retail sales.

The U.S. is to release its weekly government report on initial jobless claims, followed by preliminary data on manufacturing activity and official data on new home sales, a key gauge of economic health.

Friday, August 24

The U.K. is to release revised second-quarter gross domestic product data, followed by a preliminary report on business investment, a leading indicator of economic health.

The U.S. is to round up the week with government data on durable goods orders, a key indicator of manufacturing production.

 

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