Forex - GBP/USD weekly outlook: April 23-27

Published 04/22/2012, 10:34 AM
GBP/USD
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Investing.com - The broadly stronger pound rose to a five-month high against the greenback on Friday, following better-than-expected U.K. retail sales data and amid diminished expectations for a fresh round of monetary stimulus from the Bank of England

GBP/USD hit 1.6147 on Friday, the pair’s highest since October 31; the pair subsequently consolidated at 1.6121 by close of trade, jumping 1.71% over the week.

Cable is likely to find support at 1.6008, the low of April 19 and short-term resistance at 1.6165, the high of October 31.

The U.K. Office for National Statistics said that retail sales jumped 1.8% on the month in March, the highest jump in more than a year and easily outstripping economists' forecasts for an increase of 0.5%.

Market sentiment was also boosted after the Group of 20 leading economies agreed Friday to boost the International Monetary Fund’s lending capacity by USD430 billion, to help shield the global economy from the debt crisis roiling the euro zone.

Earlier in the week, the minutes of the BoE’s April meeting showed that just one policymaker voted in favor of additional easing, after two members of the banks monetary policy committee favored more easing in March.

In the U.S., data on Thursday showed that manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia-region expanded at a slower rate than expected in April and U.S. existing home sales declined unexpectedly last month.

The data came after a government report showing that the number of people who filed for unemployment assistance in the U.S. in the week ending April 14 fell less-than-expected, while the previous week’s figure was revised higher.

The Department of Labor said the number of individuals filing for initial jobless benefits in the week ending April 14 fell by 2,000 to a seasonally adjusted 386,000, disappointing expectations for a decline of 18,000 to 370,000.

The previous week’s figure was revised up to 388,000 from 380,000.

The soft data sparked concerns over the strength of the U.S. economic recovery, ahead of the Federal Reserve’s two-day policy meeting this week.

In the week ahead, investors will be eyeing the Fed’s rate statement for any signs that the central bank is leaning towards another round of monetary easing, while the euro looks set to remain under pressure as concerns over Spain’s fiscal woes continue.

In addition the U.K. is to release preliminary data on first quarter gross domestic product.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets. The guide skips Monday, as there are no relevant events on this day.

Tuesday, April 24

The U.K. is to release an official report on public sector net borrowing.

Meanwhile, the U.S. is to produce a report on house price inflation, a key indicator of the housing industry’s health, as well as a Conference Board report on consumer confidence and government data on new home sales.

Wednesday, April 25

The U.K. is to publish preliminary data on first quarter GDP, the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary gauge of the economy’s health. The country is also to release a report by the Confederation of British Industry on industrial order expectations, a key signal of economic health.

The U.S. is to publish government data on durable goods orders, a leading indicator of production, and crude oil stockpiles. The Federal Reserve is to announce its benchmark interest rate and release its rate statement. Also Wednesday, U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner is scheduled to speak.

Thursday, April 26

The U.K. is to publish a report by the Nationwide Building Society on consumer confidence, a leading indicator of consumer spending. The country is also to produce industry data on mortgage approvals and retail sales.

Later Thursday, the U.S. is to publish government data on initial unemployment claims, an important signal of overall economic health, as well as industry data on pending home sales.

Friday, April 27

The U.K. is to publish a report by Gfk on consumer confidence and industry data on house price inflation.

The U.S. is to round up the week with preliminary data on first quarter GDP, as well as reports on the GDP price index and employment cost inflation. In addition, the University of Michigan is to release revised data on consumer sentiment.


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