Forex - EUR/USD weekly outlook: September 26-30

Published 09/25/2011, 11:00 AM
EUR/USD
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Investing.com – The dollar fell against the euro on Friday, paring some of the week’s gains as market sentiment strengthened after financial leaders from the G20 nations pledged a “strong” response to the challenges facing the global economy.

EUR/USD hit 1.3383 on Thursday, the pair’s lowest since January 19; the pair subsequently consolidated at 1.3496 by close of trade on Friday, shedding 1.42% over the week.

The pair is likely to find short-term support at 1.3383, Thursday’s low and an eight-month low and resistance at 1.3720, Monday’s high.

Risk appetite made a modest recovery after financial leaders from the G20 group said they were “committed to a strong and coordinated international response to address the renewed challenges facing the global economy,” after talks in Washington.

Leaders also called on the European Union to take quick action to resolve the financial crisis in the euro zone.

The euro fell sharply earlier in the week as a combination of fears over the deepening debt crisis in the single currency bloc and concerns over a slowdown in global growth saw investors shun riskier assets.

On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve said there were “significant downside risks” facing the U.S. economy. The central bank unveiled a plan to trade short-term bonds for long-term ones, in an attempt to boost the economy by pushing down long-term interest rates, a move dubbed “Operation Twist.”

The warning came after the International Monetary Fund cut its growth forecasts for the global economy to 4% for 2011 and 2012 and said the world economy had entered "a dangerous new phase."

Meanwhile, concerns over a slowdown in the euro zone were underlined after data on Thursday showed that German manufacturing output fell to a 24-month low in September, while manufacturing activity in the 17-nation single currency bloc slumped to the lowest since August 2009.

On Saturday Greece’s Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos reiterated that his country would do whatever it takes to avert a default and remain within the euro zone.

Venizelos also said the government was confident that officials from the EU, IMF and ECB would return to Athens next week as planned and that the EUR8 billion tranche of aid will be approved.

In the week ahead, developments in Greece look likely to remain in focus while investors will be closely watching U.S. data on second quarter economic growth in order to gauge the strength of the U.S. economic recovery.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, September 26

In the euro zone, the Ifo Institute for Economic Research is to publish a report on German business sentiment, a leading indicator of economic health.

Later in the day, the U.S. is to produce government data on new home sales, a leading indicator of demand in the housing market.

Tuesday, September 27

In the euro zone, Germany is to release a report on consumer climate, an important indicator of consumer spending.

Later in the day, the U.S. is to publish industry data on house prices, as well as a report on consumer confidence.

Wednesday, September 28

In the euro zone, Germany is to publish preliminary data on consumer price inflation, which accounts for the majority of overall inflation.

Later in the day, the U.S. is to produce official data on durable goods orders, a leading indicator of production. The country is also to publish government data on crude oil stockpiles.

Thursday, September 29

In the euro zone, Germany is to publish a government report on employment change, an important indicator of economic health.

Meanwhile, the U.S. is to publish its weekly report on initial jobless claims, as well as industry data on pending home sales. The country is also to publish revised data on second quarter gross domestic product, the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary gauge of the economy's health. In addition, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke is to speak; his comments will be closely watched for clues regarding future monetary policy.

Friday, September 30


The euro zone is to publish official data on unemployment as well as preliminary data on consumer price inflation, which accounts for a majority of overall inflation. Meanwhile, Germany is to publish official data on retail sales, while France is to release a report on consumer spending.

The U.S. is to round up the week with official data on personal spending and inflation as well as a report on manufacturing activity in the Chicago area. Meanwhile, the University of Michigan is to publish revised data on consumer sentiment and inflation expectations.

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