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Forex - EUR/USD weekly outlook: September 19-23

Published 09/18/2011, 10:50 AM
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Investing.com – The U.S. dollar was higher against the euro on Friday, trimming the week’s losses as the single currency came under pressure after a meeting of European Union finance ministers failed to make headway on resolving the region’s debt crisis.

EUR/USD hit 1.3936 on Thursday, the pair’s highest since September 9; the pair subsequently consolidated at 1.3792 by close of trade on Friday, rising 1.5% over the week.

The pair is likely to find support at 1.3493, Monday’s low and a seven-month low and resistance at 1.3936, Thursday’s high.

EU ministers failed to reach an agreement over a controversial demand by Finland that Greece provide collateral in exchange for further bailout funds.

The meeting was also attended by U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, who urged euro zone leaders to overcome damaging divisions and remove "catastrophic risk" from markets.

Also Friday, ratings agency Moody’s said it would extend its three-month review of Italy’s sovereign debt rating because of "the increasingly challenging economic and financial environment and fluid political developments" in the euro zone.

The euro strengthened broadly on Thursday, after the European Central Bank announced that it would provide additional dollar liquidity to euro area banks in a move coordinated with the Federal Reserve and other central banks.

The announcement eased concerns over funding shortages among European lenders and saw the euro jump more than 1% against the dollar and the yen.

The greenback also came under pressure after government data showed that U.S. retail sales were unchanged in August, following a smaller-than-expected 0.3% gain in July, while a separate report showed that U.S. jobless claims rose more-than-expected.

Other reports showed that U.S. consumer prices rose slightly more than expected last month while manufacturing activity in New York contracted unexpectedly.

The single currency was supported earlier in the week after French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel said Greece should remain in the euro zone and after Athens reaffirmed commitment to its budget plan.

Meanwhile, the euro ended the week slightly higher against the Swiss franc, but the pair remained close to the minimum exchange rate target with EUR/CHF easing up 0.18% to hit 1.2081 by close of trade on Friday.

On Thursday, the Swiss National Bank left its interest rate close to zero in a widely expected decision. The central bank reiterated its pledge to defend the minimum targeted rate of 1.20 per euro, set on September 6 and said that if it were not for the exchange rate cap, "there would be a substantial threat of recession."

In the coming week, developments in the euro zone look set to remain in focus, while investors will be watching the outcome of the Federal Reserve’s extended policy setting meeting on Wednesday for any signs that the bank is looking at providing fresh monetary stimulus to support the economy.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets. The guide skips Monday, as there are no relevant events on this day.

Tuesday, September 20

In the euro zone, Germany is to publish government data on producer price inflation, while the ZEW Centre for Economic Research is to release reports on economic sentiment in Germany and also in the wider single currency bloc.

Also Tuesday, the U.S. is to publish government data on building permits, an excellent gauge of future construction activity, as well as a report on housing starts, a leading indicator of economic health.

Wednesday, September 21

The U.S. is to publish industry data on existing home sales as well as a government report on crude oil inventories. In addition, the Federal Reserve is to announce the federal funds rate. The banks’ rate statement will be closely watched by investors for any clues to the future direction of monetary policy.

Thursday, September 22

The euro zone is to publish preliminary data on activity in the manufacturing and service sectors, while France and Germany are also to release individual reports. The single currency bloc is also to publish official data on industrial new orders, a leading indicator of production.

The U.S. is to publish its weekly report in initial jobless claims, a leading indicator of economic health.

Friday, September 23

ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet is to deliver a speech in Washington; his comments will be closely watched for clues to the future possible direction of monetary policy.

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