Forex - EUR/USD weekly outlook: September 10 - 14

Published 09/09/2012, 10:40 AM
Investing.com - The euro climbed to a four-and-a-half month high against the U.S. dollar on Friday, as disappointing U.S. employment data boosted expectations for fresh easing measures by the Federal Reserve, while the European Central Bank’s new bond-buying plan supported sentiment.

EUR/USD hit 1.2816 on Friday, the pair’s highest since May 22; the pair subsequently consolidated at 1.2814 by close of trade on Friday, advancing 0.96% over the week.

The pair is likely to find support at 1.2625, Friday’s low and resistance at 1.2956, the high of May 11.

The greenback came under broad selling pressure after the Department of Labor said on Friday that the U.S. economy added 96,000 jobs in August, well below expectations for 125,000, following a downwardly revised 141,000 in July.

The smaller-than-expected increase in job creation increased the chances that the U.S. central bank will implement further quantitative easing measures to strengthen the U.S. economic recovery, ahead of its upcoming policy meeting.

The U.S. report came a day after the European Central Bank announced details of its bond purchasing program aimed at stemming the debt crisis in the euro zone, dubbed Outright Monetary Transactions.

Speaking at the bank’s post-policy meeting press conference on Thursday, ECB President Mario Draghi said the plan would provide "a fully effective backstop" against market volatility.

Under the terms of the plan, the ECB would buy unlimited amounts of government bonds of up to three years in maturity, as long as the country in question is signed up to the OMT program and agrees to economic reforms in return for assistance.

The bank also maintained the benchmark interest rate at a record-low 0.75% at its policy meeting earlier in the day, in line with expectations.

The yield on Spanish 10-year bonds settled at 5.63% on Friday, falling below the 6% level for the first time since May, while the yield on Italian 10-year bonds fell to 5.05% by the close on Friday.

Also Friday, official data showed that industrial production in Germany rose far more-than-expected in July, increasing by 1.3% after a 0.4% fall the previous month.

Analysts had expected German industrial production to rise 0.2% in July.
In the coming week, investors will be focusing on the outcome of the Fed’s policy meeting on Thursday, amid ongoing speculation over how close policymakers are to implementing more stimulus measures.

Market participants will also be eyeing Wednesday’s German court ruling on the constitutionality of the European Stability Mechanism.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, September 10

The euro zone is to release data on investor confidence, while France is to publish official data on industrial production.

Tuesday, September 11

The U.S. is to produce a report on trade balance, the difference in value between imported and exported goods and services.

Wednesday, September 12

The euro zone is to produce official data on industrial production, while Italy is to publish individual data.

Separately, the German Federal Constitutional Court is to announce a ruling regarding the constitutionality of the European Stability Mechanism.
Later in the day, the U.S. is to release official data on import prices, followed by a government report on crude oil stockpiles.

Thursday, September 13

In the euro zone, the ECB is to produce its monthly bulletin, which reveals the statistical data that the ECB Governing Board evaluated when making its latest interest rate decision.

Separately, Italy is to hold an auction of 10-year government bonds, which will be an important test of investor appetite for the country’s debt.

The U.S. is to publish government data on producer price inflation, as well as a weekly report on initial jobless claims.

The Federal Reserve is to announce its benchmark interest rate; the announcement is to be accompanied by the bank’s rate statement, which contains insights into current economic conditions from the bank’s perspective.

Friday, September 14

In the euro zone, official data is to be published on consumer price inflation. Meanwhile, European Union finance ministers are to hold a first day of talks in Brussels.

The U.S. is to round up the week with official reports on consumer price inflation, retail sales and business inventories. The Federal Reserve is also to release data on the capacity utilization rate and industrial production, while the University of Michigan is to produce preliminary reports on consumer sentiment and inflation expectations.
 

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2025 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.