Forex - EUR/USD weekly outlook: October 8 - 12

Published 10/07/2012, 08:25 AM
EUR/USD
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Investing.com - The euro advanced to a more than two-week high against the U.S. dollar on Friday, after better-than-expected U.S. employment data bolstered risk appetite, while speculation over whether Spain will request a bailout continued.

EUR/USD hit 1.3070 on Friday, the pair's highest since September 19; the pair subsequently consolidated at 1.3033 by close of trade, 1.45% higher on the week.

The pair is likely to find support at 1.2900, Thursday's low and resistance at 1.3120, the high of September 18.

The U.S. Department of Labor said Friday that the economy added 114,000 jobs in September, pushing the unemployment rate down to 7.8% from 8.1% the previous month, the lowest level since January 2009.

The report came after upbeat U.S. data on manufacturing and services earlier in the week and fuelled hopes that the economic recovery may be gaining momentum.

On Wednesday, the Institute of Supply Management said its services purchasing managers' index rose to 55.1 in September from a reading of 53.7 in August.  

Analysts had expected the index to decline to 53.2 in September.

Data produced by the ISM on Monday showed that U.S. manufacturing activity expanded in September for the first time in four months.

Sentiment on the single currency was boosted on Thursday after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi reiterated that the single currency is “irreversible” and said that he remained committed to preserving the "singleness" of monetary policy in the euro zone.

Speaking at the ECB’s post-policy meeting press conference, Draghi said bank was ready to buy the debt of distressed euro zone states when the prerequisites are in place and reiterated that the ECB was acting strictly within its mandate in undertaking a bond buying program via Outright Monetary Transactions.

Draghi also said economic risks in the euro zone remain to the downside and added that economic indicators point to weak growth in the third quarter.

The ECB left rates on hold at a record low 0.75% at its policy meeting, in a widely anticipated decision.

On Tuesday, Spain's Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy downplayed the possibility that Madrid would request a full-scale sovereign bailout, saying it was not certain that the country would ask for external financial assistance.

Spain has seen borrowing costs fall in recent week in anticipation that it will soon request a bailout. The yield on Spanish 10-year bonds settled at 5.66% on Friday, down from 6.83% at the start of September.

In the week ahead, market participants will be closely watching the outcome of a meeting of euro zone finance ministers on Tuesday, where a possible bailout for Spain is expected to be on the agenda.

Meanwhile, the U.S. is to publish its weekly report on initial jobless claims, as well as a closely watched report on consumer sentiment.
 
Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, October 8

In the euro zone, finance ministers from the currency bloc are to hold a day of talks in Brussels. The euro zone is also to release data on investor confidence, while Germany is to publish data on industrial production.

Markets in the U.S. are to remain closed for the Columbus Day holiday.

Tuesday, October 9

Finance ministers from the euro zone are to hold a day of meetings in Brussels.

Wednesday, October 10

In the euro zone, France and Italy are to publish official data on industrial production, a leading indicator of economic health.

Later in the day, the U.S. Federal Reserve is to publish its Beige Book, which outlines current economic conditions.

Thursday, October 11

The ECB is to publish its monthly bulletin, with looks at current and future economic conditions from the bank’s perspective.

The U.S. is to publish government data on the trade balance, in addition to official data on initial jobless claims, import prices and crude oil stockpiles.

Also Thursday, finance ministers and central bankers from the G7 group of industrialized nations are due to hold talks in Tokyo.

Friday, October 12

The euro zone is to release official data on industrial production, an important indicator of economic health.

The U.S. is to round up the week with official data on producer price inflation, a leading indicator of consumer inflation. In addition, the University of Michigan is to release preliminary data on consumer sentiment, a leading indicator of economic health.



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