Forex - EUR/USD weekly outlook: October 4-8

Published 10/03/2010, 11:49 AM
EUR/USD
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Investing.com – Last week saw the euro surge to a 6-month high against the broadly weaker U.S. dollar after Federal Reserve officials indicated that the bank would almost certainly have to provide fresh stimulus to the faltering U.S. economy.

EUR/USD hit 1.3790 by close of trade on Friday; the pair's highest since March 17, 2010, jumping 2.2% over the week.

The pair is likely to find support at 1.3565, last Thursday's low and resistance at 1.4025, the high of February 3, 2010.

On Friday, Federal Reserve Bank of New York President William Dudley, speaking in relation to the U.S. economy said that "The current situation is wholly unsatisfactory". Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said that further steps to stimulate the U.S. economy may be "desirable".

The downbeat remarks overshadowed Friday's better-than-expected data on U.S. consumer sentiment and spending. The euro was also boosted by better-than-expected Chinese manufacturing data.

In the week ahead, the U.S. is due to release the closely watched ADP report on non-farm employment change ahead of Friday's government data on non-farm payrolls. In addition, the country is to release official data on initial jobless claims, manufacturing activity and pending home sales.

Meanwhile, the European Central Bank is to announce its benchmark interest rate. The euro zone is also to release official data on retail sales and German factory orders and industrial production.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect EUR/USD.

Monday, October 4

The U.S. is to start the week by releasing official data on pending home sales and factory orders, while Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is due to deliver a speech at a public engagement. His comments will be closely scrutinized for any clues to the future direction of monetary policy.

Meanwhile, the euro zone is to produce data on investor confidence and producer price inflation, a leading indicator of economic growth.

Tuesday, October 5

The U.S. is due to release official data on services sector growth, a leading indicator of economic health.

Meanwhile, the euro zone is to publish official data on retail sales, a leading indicator of consumer spending. The region is also due to publish its services PMI, a leading indicator of service sector activity.

Wednesday, October 6

The U.S. is to release a report on ADP non-farm employment change. This data is viewed as an accurate prediction of the governments report on non-farm payrolls released two days later. Also Wednesday, the U.S. is to publish data on crude oil inventories.

Elsewhere, the euro zone is to release final data on its GDP, the leading indicator of economic growth, while Germany is to publish data on factory orders.

Thursday, October 7

The U.S. is to release key weekly data on initial jobless claims as well as official data on consumer credit and natural gas inventories.

Meanwhile, the European Central Bank is due to announce its benchmark interest rate, followed by a closely watched press conference. Also Thursday, Germany is to release key data on industrial production, while France is due to produce official data on its trade balance.

Friday, October 8

The U.S. is to end the week by producing key data on non-farm employment change and a report on the country's unemployment rate, both leading indicators of overall economic health.

Meanwhile, in the euro zone, Germany is due to publish official data on its trade balance, while France is to release a report on its government budget balance.

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