Forex - EUR/USD Weekly outlook: October 31-November 4

Published 10/30/2011, 11:34 AM
EUR/USD
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Investing.com - Last week saw the euro rise sharply against the U.S. dollar, after a key European summit resulted in a new plan to deal with Greece's financial crisis and to avoid debt contagion in the euro zone.

EUR/USD hit 1.4246 on Thursday, the pair's highest since September 6; the pair subsequently consolidated at 1.4145 by close of trade on Friday, surging 2.16% over the week.

The pair is likely to find support at 1.3991, the low of September 7 and resistance at 1.4287, the high of September 2.

The single currency rallied more than 1.5% on Thursday, after European leaders reached an agreement on a package of anti-crisis measures, including an agreement with banks to take a 50% loss on the face value of their Greek debt.

Leaders also agreed to scale up the euro zone's bailout fund, the European Financial Stability Facility, to EUR1 trillion and to recapitalize European banks by EUR106 billion.

Risk appetite was also boosted after official data showed that U.S. gross domestic product rose by 2.5% in the third quarter, the fastest rate of increase since the third quarter of 2010.

The reading nearly doubled growth of 1.3% recorded in the preceding quarter. Analysts had expected U.S. gross domestic product to rise 2.4% in the third quarter.

But the euro trimmed some of the week's gains on Friday, after ratings agency Fitch said that writedowns on Greek debt would indicate a default and after Italy’s borrowing costs rose to a euro lifetime high, following an auction of government debt.

In the week ahead, investors will be focusing on the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting on Wednesday and Friday’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls data. In the euro zone Mario Draghi is to take over from outgoing European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, October 31

The euro zone is to release preliminary data on consumer price inflation, which accounts for a majority of overall inflation. The euro zone is also to produce data on the unemployment rate, an important indicator of economic health.

Later Monday, the U.S is to produce a report on manufacturing activity in the Chicago area, an important indicator of economic health.

Tuesday, November 1

The Institute of Supply Management is to produce a report on U.S. manufacturing activity, a leading indicator of economic health.

Wednesday, November 2


In the euro zone, Germany is to produce official data on unemployment change.

Later Wednesday, the U.S. is to release private sector data on non-farm payrolls that leads government data by two days as well as a government report on crude oil stockpiles. In addition, the Federal Reserve is to announce its benchmark interest rate. The bank’s post-policy meeting press conference will be closely watched for indications to the future possible direction of monetary policy.

Thursday, November 3

Leaders from the G-20 group of industrialized nations are to hold talks to discuss a range of global economic topics, including the financial crisis in the euro zone, in Cannes.

In the euro zone, the ECB is to announce its benchmark interest rate; the announcement will be followed by the bank’s press conference to discuss monetary policy.

Later in the day, the U.S. is to produce its weekly report on initial jobless claims as well as government data on factory orders. The U.S. is also to publish preliminary data on nonfarm productivity and labor costs, important inflationary indicators. In addition the ISM is to release a report on service sector activity, a leading indicator of economic health.

Friday, November 4

In the euro zone, Germany is to publish official data on factory orders, a leading indicator of economic health. The region is also to publish revised data on service sector growth as well as a report on producer price inflation.

The U.S. is to round up the week with its closely watched government report on nonfarm payrolls, in addition to official data on the unemployment rate and average hourly earnings.

Meanwhile, G-20 leaders are to meet for a second day in Cannes.

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