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Forex - EUR/USD weekly outlook: October 21 - 25

Published 10/20/2013, 10:57 AM
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Investing.com - The euro rose to eight-month highs against the dollar on Friday on concerns that the Federal Reserve will postpone rolling back stimulus measures following the U.S. government shutdown.

EUR/USD ended Friday’s session at 1.3684, 0.07% higher for the day, after rising to 1.3703, the highest since February 1 earlier. For the week, the pair gained 0.95%.

The pair is likely to find support at 1.3630 and near-term resistance at 1.3710, the high of February 1.

The dollar fell against the other major currencies on Thursday after the U.S. Congress passed a bill to reopen the government and raise the debt ceiling, with just hours to spare ahead of a deadline to avert an unprecedented sovereign debt default.

The deal will fund the government until January 15 and raise the government borrowing limit until February 7. Both sides also agreed to talks over broad budget issues in an attempt to reach a longer-term deal by December 13.

As fears over a default receded investors turned their attention to the economic impact of the 16-day government shutdown. The dollar slid amid fears that the Fed would delay plans for rolling back its asset purchase program until at least the beginning of next year.

The possibility of another debt crisis also remained, as the temporary solution does not resolve the underlying budgetary issues dividing Republicans and Democrats.

Elsewhere, the euro ended the week lower against the pound, with EUR/GBP down 0.28% to 0.8464 at the close of trade on Friday. The euro was little changed against the yen, with EUR/JPY edging up 0.07% for the week to settle at 133.81.

In the week ahead, U.S. data releases will be in focus after the shutdown delayed the release of some key economic reports. The Department of Labor is to publish the September nonfarm payrolls report on Tuesday and data on durable goods orders is to be published on Friday.

Meanwhile, the euro zone is to release data on manufacturing and service sector activity and the Ifo index of German business climate.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, October 21

Germany is to produce data on producer price inflation, a leading indicator of consumer inflation.

The U.S. is to release private sector data on existing home sales, a leading indicator of demand in the housing sector.

Tuesday, October 22

The U.S. is to publish the September nonfarm payrolls report, which had been originally scheduled for release on October 4.

Wednesday, October 23

The U.S. is to publish data on import prices, a leading contributor to inflation.

Thursday, October 24

The euro zone is to release preliminary data on manufacturing and service sector activity, a leading indicator of economic health. Germany and France are also to release individual reports.

The U.S. is to release the weekly report on initial jobless claims, as well as data on new home sales.

Friday, October 25

The Ifo institute is to release a report on German business climate, a leading indicator of economic health.

The U.S. is to round up the week with data on durable goods orders, a leading indicator of production, as well as revised data on consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan.




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