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Forex - EUR/USD weekly outlook: October 19 - 23

Published 10/18/2015, 10:39 AM
© Reuters.  Euro lower ahead of ECB meeting
EUR/USD
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Investing.com - The euro fell against the dollar on Friday as the diverging monetary policy stance between the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve pressured the single currency lower.

EUR/USD retreated 0.35% to 1.1347 in late trade, having hit a seven-week high of 1.1494 on Thursday, and ended the week 0.18% lower.

The dollar fell on Wednesday after weak U.S. retail sales numbers were seen as reducing the chances for Fed lift off in the coming months.

But data on Thursday showing that core inflation in the U.S. rose more than expected in the year to September indicated that consumer prices are set to rise.

The euro turned sharply lower on Thursday after ECB governing council member Ewald Nowotny said additional measures to boost price growth in the euro zone are needed.

The remarks underlined expectations that the ECB will enlarge its quantitative easing program at its upcoming policy meeting on Thursday.

Data on Friday confirmed that the rate of inflation in the euro area turned negative in September for the first time since the ECB launched its trillion euro asset purchase program in March, with the consumer price index down 0.1% on a year-over-year basis.

The euro’s losses were held in check following the release of mixed U.S. economic reports.

The University of Michigan’s survey of consumer sentiment rebounded in October following four months of declines.

The preliminary reading of the consumer sentiment index came in at 92.1 compared to forecasts of 89 and up from 87.2 in September.

But another report showed that U.S. industrial production declined 0.2% in September, pressured lower by weakness in the oil and gas sector.

In the week ahead, investors will be focusing on the outcome of Thursday’s ECB meeting.

Monday’s data on Chinese third quarter economic growth will also be closely watched amid fears that a China-led slowdown in global growth could prompt the Fed to delay hiking rates for longer.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets. The guide skips Wednesday as there are no scheduled economic data releases.

Monday, October 19

China is to release data on third quarter economic growth as well as reports on industrial production and fixed asset investment.

Later in the day, Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard is to speak at an event in Chicago.

Tuesday, October 20

The U.S. is to release data on building permits and housing starts.

New York Fed President William Dudley and Fed Governor Jerome Powell are both to speak at an event in New York.

Thursday, October 22

In the euro zone, Spain is to publish data on the unemployment rate.

The ECB is to announce its monetary policy decision. The rate announcement will be followed by a post-policy meeting press conference with President Mario Draghi.

The U.S. is to produce data on initial jobless claims and existing home sales.

Friday, October 23

The euro zone is to round up the week with survey data on manufacturing and service sector activity.

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