Forex - EUR/USD weekly outlook: October 15 - 19

Published 10/14/2012, 11:52 AM
EUR/USD
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Investing.com - The euro was higher against the U.S. dollar on Friday, but ended lower for the week, as ongoing uncertainty over Spain’s stance on formally requesting a bailout and concerns over the outlook for global growth supported demand for the greenback.

EUR/USD hit 1.2824 on Thursday, the pair’s lowest since October 1; the pair subsequently consolidated at 1.2949 by close of trade, down 0.56% for the week.

The pair is likely to find support at 1.2824, Thursday’s low and resistance at 1.3024, Monday’s high.

Demand for the euro was underpinned by speculation that Spain was moving closer to requesting fiscal aid from its euro zone partners following a downgrade by ratings agency Standard & Poor’s.

S&P cut the country’s credit rating to BBB-minus with a negative outlook late Wednesday, just one notch above junk status, citing “mounting risks to Spain’s public finances.”

A bailout request by Madrid would trigger the European Central Bank’s bond purchasing program, aimed at lowering borrowing costs for struggling euro zone states.

The dollar was little changed against the euro after official data showed that U.S. consumer sentiment rose to its highest level in five years in October, while a separate report showed that producer price inflation rose more-than-forecast in September.

The University of Michigan said that its consumer sentiment index rose to a seasonally adjusted 83.1 from 78.3 in September, the highest level since September 2007.

The data came one day after the U.S. Department of Labor said the number of individuals filing for initial jobless benefits fell by 30,000 to a seasonally adjusted 339,000 in the previous week, compared to expectations for an increase of 1,000.

Concerns over the outlook for the global economy persisted after the International Monetary Fund cut its forecast for global growth this year to 3.3% from 3.5% and warned that a failure by European and U.S. policymakers to tackle current problems could threaten what it called a “slow and bumpy” economic recovery.

In the week ahead, markets will continue to continue to focus on whether Spain will formally request a bailout and if international creditors will extend loans to Greece as the country struggles to meet deficit reduction targets.

Meanwhile, the U.S. is to release a flurry of data, including reports on retail sales, manufacturing activity in New York and Philadelphia, initial jobless claims and housing starts, among others.
 
Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, October 15

The U.S. is to produce official data on retail sales, the primary indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of economic activity. In addition, the U.S. is to release data on manufacturing activity in New York state, as well as official data on business inventories.

Tuesday, October 16

The euro zone is also to release official data on consumer price inflation. The ZEW Institute is to publish data on German economic sentiment, a leading indicator of economic health, as well as data on economic sentiment in the wider euro area. In addition, Spain and Greece are scheduled to hold auctions of government debt.

The U.S. is to release government data on consumer price inflation and industrial production. The U.S. is also to produce official data on treasury long-term purchases and the capacity utilization rate.

Wednesday, October 17

The U.S. is to publish government data on building permits, an excellent gauge of future construction activity, as well as data on housing starts, a leading indicator of economic health. The U.S. is also to produce official data on crude oil stockpiles.

Thursday, October 18

In the euro zone, Spain and France are scheduled to hold auctions of government debt.

The U.S. is to publish weekly government data on initial jobless claims, as well as a report on manufacturing activity in Philadelphia, a leading indicator of economic strength.

Friday, October 19

The euro zone is to publish official data on the current account, which is closely linked to currency demand. Meanwhile, Germany is to release government data on producer price inflation.

The U.S. is to round up the week with industry data on existing home sales, a leading indicator of economic health.



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