Forex - EUR/USD weekly outlook: November 29-December 3

Published 11/28/2010, 10:55 AM
EUR/USD
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Investing.com – Last week saw the U.S. dollar advance against the euro for the third straight week, rising to a 2-month high amid concerns that Ireland’s debt problems would spread to affect other vulnerable euro zone nations, such as Portugal or Spain.

EUR/USD hit 1.5574 on Friday, the pair’s lowest since September 21; the pair subsequently consolidated at 1.5589 by close of trade, plunging 2.43% over the week.

The pair is likely to find support at 1.5448, the low of September 15 and resistance at 1.5793, last T6hursday’s low.

On Friday, The Financial Times Deutschland reported that euro zone countries and the European Central Bank were applying pressure on Portugal to accept a rescue package, in order to shield Spain from contagion.

Portugal, Spain and the European Commission officials denied the report as "absolutely false" while Spain’s Finance Minister Elena Salgado said there was “absolutely” no risk that her country will need a bailout.

Meanwhile, Irish officials were in negotiation over the weekend to complete an aid-package deal before financial markets were due to re-open on Monday.

In the week ahead, the U.S. is to release data on ADP non-farm payrolls on Wednesday, ahead of the closely watched government data on non-farm employment on Friday. The government is also to publish its weekly report on initial jobless claims.

In addition, the U.S. is to release data on consumer confidence, pending home sales, manufacturing and service sector growth while the chairman of the Federal Reserve is to speak at a public engagement.

In the euro zone, the European Central Bank is to announce its benchmark interest rate while the ECB president is to speak at a number of engagements.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets. The guide skips Monday as there are no relevant events on this day.

Tuesday, November 30


The U.S. is to publish industry data on house prices, an important indicator of economic health as well as data on consumer confidence, a leading indicator of consumer spending. The country is also to release an index of manufacturing growth in the Chicago area, while Federal Reserve Chairman, Ben Bernanke is to speak at a public engagement; his comments will be closely watched for any clues to the future direction of monetary policy.

Wednesday, December 1

In the euro zone, Germany is to produce official data on retail sales, while the euro zone is to release final data on manufacturing activity.

Also Wednesday, the U.S. is to publish a key monthly report on ADP non-farm employment change, which leads government data by two days. The country is also to publish revised data on nonfarm productivity, as well as official data on manufacturing activity, construction spending, total vehicle sales and crude oil inventories. In addition, the Federal Reserve is to publish its Beige Book, a summary of the data the bank examines before setting the benchmark interest rate.

Thursday, December 2

In the euro zone, the ECB is to announce its benchmark interest rate. The announcement will be followed by a closely watched press conference. The euro zone is also to release a report on producer price inflation as well as revised third quarter GDP data, the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary gauge of the economy's health.

Also Thursday, the U.S. is to publish key weekly data on initial jobless claims, a leading indicator of overall economic health. The country will also release official data on pending home sales and natural gas storage.

Friday, December 3


In the euro zone, ECB president Jean-Claude Trichet is to speak at a public engagement. His comments will be closely scrutinized for any clues to the future direction of monetary policy. Later in the day, the euro zone is to release final data on service sector growth and a report on retail sales, the primary indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity.

The U.S. is to round up the week with key data on non-farm employment change and a report on the country's unemployment rate, both leading indicators of economic health. The country is also to publish industry data on service sector growth as well as official data on factory orders.

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