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Forex - EUR/USD weekly outlook: November 25 - 29

Published 11/24/2013, 10:49 AM
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Investing.com - The euro gained ground against the dollar on Friday and rose to four year highs against the yen as stronger-than-forecast German business confidence data bolstered the outlook for the economic recovery in the currency bloc.

EUR/USD ended Friday’s session at 1.3556, up from 1.3480 on Thursday. For the week, the pair gained 0.39%.

The pair is likely to find support at 1.3414, the low of November 20 and resistance at 1.3588, the high of November 1.

Germany’s Ifo business climate index rose to 109.3 in November, its highest level since April 2012, from 107.4 in October. Economists had expected the index to tick up to 107.7.

The data pointed to a broad based recovery in the euro zone’s largest economy and eased concerns over the possibility of further rate cuts by the European Central Bank.

The euro also remained supported after ECB President Mario Draghi after downplayed speculation over negative deposit rates in the euro zone in a speech on Thursday.

The euro ended the week 1.81% higher against the broadly weaker yen, with EUR/JPY settling at 137.28, the highest level since October 2009.

The yen weakened broadly amid mounting expectations that the Bank of Japan will implement additional easing measures next year.

BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda indicated that a fresh round of monetary easing could be on the cards on Thursday, saying the bank “would not hesitate” to take further steps in order to meet its 2% inflation target. The bank “has room to act against upside and downside risks”, he said.

The comments came at a news conference following a decision by the bank to keep monetary policy on hold.

Demand for the U.S. dollar continued to be underpinned after Wednesday’s minutes of the Federal Reserve’s October meeting said the bank could start scaling back its USD85 billion-a-month asset purchase program in the “coming months” if the economy continues to improve as expected.

In the week ahead, the euro zone is to release what will be closely watched data on consumer prices and the unemployment rate.

The U.S. is to release a series of reports on the housing sector, as well as data on consumer confidence and durable goods orders.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, November 25

The U.S. is to release private sector data on pending home sales, a leading indicator of economic health.

Tuesday, November 26

The U.S. is to produce data on building permits, a leading indicator of future construction activity as well as a report on housing starts. The nation is also to release private sector data on consumer confidence and house price inflation.

Wednesday, November 27

In the euro zone, Germany is to release the Gfk report on consumer climate.

The U.S. is to release data on durable goods orders, a leading indicator of production, as well as a report on manufacturing activity in the Chicago region and revised data on consumer sentiment. The Labor Department is to release the weekly report on initial jobless claims one day ahead of schedule due to Thursday’s Thanksgiving holiday.

Thursday, November 28

In the euro zone, Germany is to release preliminary data on consumer inflation, in addition to data on the change in the number of people unemployed.

Markets in the U.S. will be closed for the Thanksgiving holiday.

Friday, November 29

The euro zone is to release preliminary data on consumer inflation and a separate report on the unemployment rate across the currency bloc. Germany is to release data on retail sales.





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