Forex - EUR/USD weekly outlook: November 19 - 23

Published 11/18/2012, 11:14 AM
EUR/USD
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Investing.com - The euro ended the week slightly higher against the U.S. dollar on Friday, but gains were limited by a combination of concerns over the economic outlook and fiscal outlook for the euro zone and worries over U.S. fiscal policy.

EUR/USD hit 1.2801 on Thursday, the pair’s highest since November 7; the pair subsequently consolidated at 1.2740 by close of trade on Friday, 0.23% higher for the week.

The pair is likely to find support at 1.2689, Friday’s low and resistance at 1.2801, Thursday’s high.

Investors continued to remain concerned over the U.S. fiscal cliff, automatic tax hikes and spending cuts due to come into effect on January 1.

Congressional leaders said talks with President Barack Obama on Friday to avert the fiscal crisis were "constructive."

There are fears the U.S. economy will fall back into a recession, unless a divided Congress and the White House can work out a compromise in the seven weeks left before the January 1 deadline.

Concerns over the economic outlook for the euro zone were underlined after data on Thursday showed that the region’s economy contracted 0.1% in the third quarter, tipping the bloc back into recession, after a 0.2% contraction in the previous quarter.

Meanwhile, the closely watched ZEW index of German economic sentiment deteriorated unexpectedly this month, fuelling fears that the debt crisis is creating a drag on the bloc’s largest economy.

Concerns over Greece persisted amid disagreements between the International Monetary Fund and Europe on how best to reduce Greece’s debt to manageable levels.

A decision on disbursing the country’s next tranche of aid, worth EUR31.5 billion, has been postponed until 20 November.

In the week ahead market participants will be focusing on developments relating to the U.S. fiscal cliff, as well as Tuesday’s meeting of the euro group of finance ministers to discuss unlocking Greece’s next aid installment.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, November 19

The U.S. is to release industry data on existing home sales, a leading indicator of economic health.

Tuesday, November 20

In the euro zone, the eurogroup of finance ministers is to hold talks in Brussels to discuss financial issues in the bloc. Meanwhile, Germany is to release official data on producer price inflation.

The U.S. is to publish official data on building permits, an excellent gauge of future construction activity, as well as data on housing starts.

Wednesday, November 21

In the euro zone, Spain and Germany are to hold auctions of 10-year government bonds.

Later Wednesday, the U.S. is to release weekly government reports on initial jobless claims and crude oil inventories. This data is being released one day early ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday.

In addition, the University of Michigan is to release revised data on consumer sentiment and inflation expectations.

Thursday, November 22

The euro zone is to release preliminary data on manufacturing and service sector activity, leading indicators of economic strength. Germany and France are also to release individual reports.

Meanwhile, European Union leaders are to hold the first day of a two-day summit in Brussels to discuss Spain and Greece and plans for greater integration of fiscal and monetary policy in the region.

Markets in the U.S. are to remain closed for the Thanksgiving holiday.

Friday, November 23

EU leaders are to hold a second day of talks in Brussels to discuss Spain and Greece and plans for greater integration of fiscal and monetary policy in the region.

Germany is to release a report on business climate, a leading indicator of economic health.



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