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Forex - EUR/USD weekly outlook: November 17 - 21

Published 11/16/2014, 11:08 AM
Euro pushes higher against dollar late Friday
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Investing.com - The euro rose against the dollar on Friday, coming off earlier lows after data showed that U.S. inflation expectations fell in an otherwise upbeat report on consumer confidence.

EUR/USD was up 0.40% to 1.2526 in late trade, after falling to lows of 1.2399 earlier in the session. For the week, the pair gained 0.54%.

The preliminary reading of the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index rose to a seven year high of 89.4, better than forecasts of 87.5 and up from October’s reading of 86.9.

However the report also showed that consumers expected annual inflation of 2.6% this year, down from expectations for inflation of 2.9% in October.

The US dollar index, which tracks the performance of the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, was down 0.25% to 87.61 in late trade, not far from the more than four-year highs of 88.36 hit earlier in the session.

The single currency fell to session lows against the dollar earlier Friday after data showed that U.S. retail sales rose 0.3% in October, ahead of forecasts for a 0.2% increase. The upbeat data bolstered the outlook for the economic recovery.

In the euro zone, data on Friday showed that the economy expanded 0.2% in the three months to September and grew 0.6% from the same period a year earlier.

Germany avoided a recession, posting growth of 0.1% in the last quarter, while France grew by a slightly stronger than expected 0.3%. Greece exited a six-year recession, but Italy fell back into recession, posting a contraction of 0.1%.

The weak growth figures did little to alter expectations for more easing measures from the European Central Bank.

Elsewhere, the Swiss franc rose to 26-month highs against the euro on Friday, with EUR/CHF at 1.2012 in late trade, not far from the Swiss National Bank’s exchange rate cap of 1.20 per euro.

The Swiss franc has strengthened against the euro in recent sessions ahead of a vote later this month which could force the central bank to increase its gold reserves, a move which could restrict its ability to cap the value of the franc against the euro.

In the week ahead, investors will be focusing on Wednesday’s minutes of the Federal Reserve’s October meeting and Thursday’s report on the U.S. consumer price index. Data the same day on euro zone private sector activity will also be closely watched.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, November 17

In the euro zone, Germany’s Bundesbank is to publish its monthly report. Meanwhile, ECB President Mario Draghi is to testify on monetary policy in the European Parliament in Brussels.

The U.S. is to release a report on manufacturing activity in the New York region, as well as data on industrial production.

Tuesday, November 18

The ZEW Institute is to release its closely watched report on German economic sentiment, a leading indicator of economic health.

The U.S. is to release data on producer price inflation.

Wednesday, November 19

The U.S. is to release data on building permits and housing starts.

Later Wednesday, the Federal Reserve is to publish the minutes of its October meeting.

Thursday, November 20

The euro zone is to publish preliminary data on private sector activity, while Germany and France are to also to publish data on private sector growth.

The U.S. is to release data on initial jobless claims, consumer prices, existing homes sales and manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia region.

Friday, November 21

ECB President Mario Draghi is to speak at an event in Frankfurt; his comments will be closely watched.





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