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Forex - EUR/USD weekly outlook: November 14-18

Published 11/13/2011, 10:45 AM
EUR/USD
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Investing.com - Last week saw the euro tumble to a one-month low against the U.S. dollar before trimming some of the week's losses as signs of progress in tackling the euro zone's sovereign debt crisis boosted demand for the single currency.

EUR/USD hit 1.3483 on Thursday, the pair's lowest since October 10; the pair subsequently consolidated at 1.3747 by close of trade on Friday, shedding 0.57% over the week.

The pair is likely to find support at 1.3483, the low of November 10 and resistance at 1.3900, the high of October 21.

The euro found support on Thursday, as market sentiment improved after Italy auctioned EUR5 billion of one-year Treasury bills at an average yield of 6.08%, the highest since September 1997, but still well below analyst expectations of 7%.

But the single currency's gains were limited after ratings agency Standard & Poor’s erroneously issued a message saying it had cut France's triple-A credit rating.

French borrowing costs remained higher on Friday despite a statement from S&P saying that the report was sent out because of a "technical error," as investors remained concerned over the possibility of a downgrade.

But risk sentiment strengthened, sending the single currency higher after Italy’s Parliament approved an amendment to the country’s 2012 budget, paving the way for the resignation of Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi on Saturday.

Meanwhile, incoming Greek Prime Minister Lucas Papademos and his cabinet were sworn in. Papademos will implement the country's latest EUR130 billion bailout before leading the country to early elections.

In the U.S., preliminary data showing that consumer sentiment rose to its highest level in five months this month contributed to stronger risk appetite.

The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index rose to a seasonally adjusted 64.2, from 60.9 in October, outstripping forecasts for an increase to 61.0.

The euro plunged over 2% against the greenback on Wednesday, as yields on 10-year Italian bonds rose above the 7% threshold, a level widely considered unsustainable for continued borrowing.

In the week ahead, investors will continue to closely monitor developments in the euro zone as talks on the formation of an emergency government in Italy get started. The euro zone is also to publish preliminary data on third quarter growth, which will be closely watched to gauge the strength of the region’s economy.

Also next week, the U.S. is to release data on retail sales, housing and inflation.
Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, November 14

The euro zone is to publish official data on industrial production, a leading indicator of economic health.

Tuesday, November 15

The euro zone is to release preliminary data on GDP, while France and Germany are to publish individual reports. In addition, the ZEW Centre for Economic Research is to release a report on economic sentiment both in Germany and the euro zone.

Also Tuesday, the U.S. is to produce a flurry of economic data with reports on retail sales, producer price inflation, business inventories and a report on manufacturing activity in New York State.

Wednesday, November 16

The euro zone is to publish official data on consumer price inflation, which accounts for a majority of overall inflation.

Later in the day, the U.S. is to publish data on consumer inflation, as well as data on industrial production, the capacity utilization rate, crude oil stockpiles and the balance of foreign and domestic investment in long-term securities.

Thursday, November 17


Also Thursday, the U.S. is to publish its weekly report on initial jobless claims, as well as data on building permits, an excellent gauge of future construction activity and housing starts. The country is also to release a report on manufacturing activity in Philadelphia, a leading indicator of economic health.

Friday, November 18


In the euro zone, Germany is to publish official data on produce price inflation.

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