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Forex - EUR/USD weekly outlook: May 20 - 24

Published 05/19/2013, 10:56 AM
EUR/USD
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Investing.com - The euro dropped to six-week lows against the broadly stronger dollar on Friday after better-than-expected U.S. consumer sentiment data fuelled speculation that the Federal Reserve may start to scale back its easing policies this year.

EUR/USD hit 1.2796, the pair’s lowest since April 4, before trimming back losses to settle at 1.2834, down 0.37% for the session and 1.2% lower for the week.

The pair is likely to find support at 1.2750, the low of March 27 and resistance at 1.2888, Friday’s high.

The University of Michigan said its consumer sentiment index jumped to 83.7 in May, its highest level since 2007, from 76.4 in the preceding month, outstripping expectations for a reading of 78.0.

A separate report by the Conference Board showed that its index of leading economic indicators rose 0.6% in April, more than double the 0.2% increase expected by economists.

The robust data bolstered speculation over a possible near-term exit from the Federal Reserve’s USD85 billion a month asset purchase program.

The data came after a series of economic data releases on Thursday raised doubts over the strength of the U.S. economic recovery.

Official data showed that consumer price inflation and housing starts fell more-than-expected in April, while jobless claims posted the largest increase in six months.

The euro remained under pressure amid speculation that the European Central Bank is preparing to cut deposit rates into negative territory. The deposit rate is the rate paid by the ECB on overnight deposits by euro zone banks.

In the week ahead investors will be focusing on Wednesday’s Federal Reserve minutes, as well as testimony on the economic outlook and monetary policy by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke.

Markets will also be watching euro zone data on manufacturing and service sector activity.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets. The guide skips Monday as there are no relevant events on this day.

Tuesday, May 21

Germany is to release official data on producer price inflation, a leading indicator of consumer inflation.

Wednesday, May 22

The euro zone is to release data on the current account, while Italy and Germany are to hold government bond auctions. European Union leaders are to hold an economic summit in Brussels.

The U.S. is to release data on existing home sales, a leading indicator of economic health, while the Federal Reserve is to publish the minutes of its most recent policy-setting meeting.

Meanwhile, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke is to testify on the economy and monetary policy in Washington.

Thursday, May 23

The euro zone is to release preliminary data on manufacturing and service sector activity. Germany and France are to produce individual reports. Meanwhile, Spain is to hold an auction of 10-year government bonds.

Later Thursday, European Central Bank President Mario Draghi is to speak; his comments will be closely watched.

The U.S. is to release the weekly government report on initial jobless claims and official data on new home sales, a leading indicator of economic health.

Friday, May 24

The Ifo Institute is to release a closely watched report on German business climate, a leading economic indicator. Germany is also to release revised data on first quarter economic growth and the Gfk index of consumer climate.

The U.S. is to round up the week with government data on durable goods orders, a leading indicator of production.




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