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Forex - EUR/USD weekly outlook: March 31 - April 4

Published 03/30/2014, 10:53 AM
Euro ends week close to one-month lows against dollar
EUR/USD
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EUR/JPY
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Investing.com - The euro inched higher against the dollar on Friday, pulling back from one-month lows as market sentiment was bolstered by indications that China is prepared to do more to shore up the cooling economy.

EUR/USD edged up 0.07% to settle at 1.3752, recovering from lows of 1.3702. The pair ended the week down 0.61%.

The pair was likely to find support at 1.3702 and resistance at 1.3800.

Risk appetite was boosted after China's premier Li Keqiang said Friday the country has policies in place to counter economic volatility. The remarks eased concerns over recent signs of a slowdown in the world’s second-largest economy.

The common currency remained under pressure after European Central Bank officials indicated earlier in the week that they are considering fresh policy options to stave off the risk of deflation in the region.

ECB governing council member and Bundesbank head Jens Weidmann said Tuesday that a negative deposit rate could be an appropriate way to address the impact of strong gains in the euro.

The same day ECB President Mario Draghi that the central bank stood ready to act if inflation slipped lower than the ECB expected.

Data on Friday showing that the annual rate of inflation in Spain slipped 0.2% in March fuelled concerns that deflation could threaten the economic recovery in the euro area. A separate report showed that the annual rate of inflation in Germany slowed in March.

Elsewhere, the euro was higher against the yen on Friday, with EUR/JPY advancing 0.71% to 141.40, up from an almost one-month trough of 139.95.

In the week ahead, investors will be looking to Friday’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls report for March for further indications on the strength of the labor market, while Monday’s euro zone inflation report will also be in focus, ahead of the ECB policy meeting and press conference on Thursday.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, March 31

The euro zone is to produce preliminary data on consumer price inflation, which accounts for the majority of overall inflation.

Tuesday, April 1

The euro zone is to release data on the unemployment rate. Germany is release data on the change in the number of people unemployed, while Spain and Italy are to release reports on manufacturing activity.

Later Tuesday, the Institute of Supply Management is to publish a report on U.S. manufacturing growth.

Wednesday, April 2

In the euro zone, Spain is release data on the change in the number of people unemployed.

The U.S. is to release the ADP report on private sector job creation, which leads the government’s nonfarm payrolls report by two days. The U.S. is also to release data on factory orders.

Thursday, April 3

The euro zone is to release data on retail sales, the government measure of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity. Spain and Italy are to publish data on service sector activity.

Later in the day, the ECB is to announce its benchmark interest rate. The announcement is to be followed by a press conference with President Mario Draghi.

The U.S. is to publish data on the trade balance, as well as the weekly report on initial jobless claims. Meanwhile, the ISM is to publish a report service sector activity.

Friday, April 4

Germany is to publish data on factory orders.

The U.S. is to round up the week with the closely watched government data on nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rate.

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