Forex - EUR/USD weekly outlook: March 19 - 23

Published 03/18/2012, 12:02 PM
EUR/USD
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Investing.com - The euro pushed higher against the U.S. dollar on Friday, after soft U.S. inflation data dampened demand for the greenback, which had rallied earlier in the week on the back of diminished expectations for further easing by the Federal Reserve.

EUR/USD hit 1.3003 on Thursday, the pair’s lowest since February 16; the pair subsequently consolidated at 1.3172 by close of trade on Friday, gaining 0.46% over the week.

The pair is likely to find support at 1.3118, Thursday’s low and a one-month low and resistance at 1.3277, the high of March 9.

The dollar weakened on Friday, after the U.S. Department of Labor said consumer price inflation rose 0.4% in February, in line with expectations, fueled largely by pricier gasoline. Core inflation rates, which are stripped of volatile food and energy prices, rose 0.1%, below expectations for a gain of 0.2%.

The soft data fuelled speculation that the Fed could maintain a policy of economic stimulus, which would dilute the greenback.

Sentiment on the greenback was further hit after industrial production numbers came in flat in February, below expectations for a 0.4% gain, while the University of Michigan’s consumer confidence index also disappointed, coming in at 74.3, below expectations for a reading of 75.7.

The greenback had strengthened earlier in the week, as investors trimmed back expectations for another round of quantitative easing from the Fed after the central bank upgraded its outlook on the economy and acknowledged the recent improvement in the labor market.

However, policymakers reiterated their intention to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged at a record low through late 2014 and warned that risks to the economic recovery still remained.

In the euro zone, official data on Friday showed  that exports from the region rose for the third consecutive month in January, climbing 11% compared to the same month a year ago to bring the euro zone’s trade deficit to EUR7.6 billion, down from EUR16.1 billion in January 2011.

In the week ahead, the U.S. is to release a flurry of data on the housing sector, which investors will be watching closely to gauge the strength of the economic recovery. Elsewhere, the euro zone is to publish preliminary data on manufacturing and service sector growth.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, March 19

The euro zone is to release a report on the current account, which is directly related to currency demand.

Tuesday, March 20

In the euro zone, Germany is to publish official data on producer price inflation, a leading indicator of consumer inflation.

The U.S. is to produce official data on building permits, an excellent gauge of future construction activity, as well as data on housing starts, a leading indicator of economic health. Also Tuesday, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke is to speak at an event in Washington; his comments will be closely watched for possible indications on the future direction of monetary policy.

Wednesday, March 21

The U.S. is to release industry data on existing home sales, a leading indicator of economic health, as well as official data on crude oil stockpiles.

Thursday, March 22

The euro zone is to release preliminary data on manufacturing and service sector activity, leading indicators of economic health, while Germany and France are to publish separate, individual reports.

The euro zone is also to publish official data on industrial production, an important indicator of economic health. Later in the day, European Central Bank President Mario Draghi is to speak; his comments will be closely watched for possible indications on the future direction of monetary policy.

Later in the day, the U.S. is to publish official data on initial jobless claims, a leading indicator of economic health. Also Thursday, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke is to speak at an event in Washington; his comments will be closely watched for possible indications on the future direction of monetary policy.

Friday, March 23

The U.S. is to round up the week with official data on new home sales, a leading indicator of economic health.

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