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Forex - EUR/USD weekly outlook: July 18 - 22

Published 07/17/2016, 11:13 AM
Updated 07/17/2016, 03:13 PM
© Reuters.  Euro tumbles as coup attempt in Turkey hits risk appetite
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Investing.com - The euro fell sharply against the dollar and the safe haven yen late Friday as risk aversion spiked after Turkey’s prime minister said an attempted military coup was under way.

EUR/USD fell 0.83% to 1.1029 in late trade and EUR/JPY was down 1.22% at 115.74 after segments of the military took over key bridges in Istanbul and attacked parliament buildings in Ankara.

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, rose 0.62% to 96.7.

Demand for the dollar had been boosted earlier Friday as upbeat economic reports out of the U.S. and China bolstered risk appetite.

The Commerce Department reported that U.S. retail sales rose 0.6% in June, the third straight monthly increase and easily outstripping gains of 0.1% forecast by economists.

Chinese data on industrial production and retail sales also beat expectations, indicating that the world’s second largest economy still has momentum.

The yen remained under pressure amid mounting expectations for additional monetary easing by Tokyo.

But the single currency rose against the pound with EUR/GBP up 0.56% to 0.8366 after the Bank of England’s chief economist said it is poised to ease monetary policy in August to counteract the negative economic shock from the vote to leave the European Union.

Sterling had strengthened across the board a day earlier after the BoE kept interest rates on hold at the conclusion of its policy meeting, dashing expectations for a rate cut.

In the week ahead, market players will be focusing on the outcome of Thursday’s European Central Bank meeting to see if policymakers will step up easing measures to offset the fallout from the Brexit vote.

The ECB is not widely expected to implement any changes to monetary policy ahead of updated inflation forecasts at its September meeting.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of this and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, July 18

Markets in Japan will be closed for a national holiday.

New Zealand is to release data on consumer price inflation.

Tuesday, July 19

The Reserve Bank of Australia is to publish the minutes of its latest monetary policy meeting, giving investors insight into how officials view the economy and their policy options.

The U.K. is to publish data on consumer price inflation.

In the euro zone, the ZEW Institute is to report on German economic sentiment.

The U.S. is to release reports on building permits and housing starts.

Wednesday, July 20

The U.K. is to publish the monthly employment report.

Thursday, July 21

The U.K. is to produce figures on retail sales and public sector borrowing.

The ECB is to announce its monetary policy decision. The rate announcement will be followed by a post-policy meeting press conference with President Mario Draghi.

The U.S. is to release data on jobless claims, existing home sales and manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia region.

Canada is to report on wholesale sales.

Friday, July 22

The euro zone is to release data on private sector business activity.

The U.K. is to release survey data on activity in the manufacturing sector.

Canada is to round up the week with data on retail sales and consumer inflation.

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