Forex - EUR/USD weekly outlook: February 13 - 17

Published 02/12/2012, 07:23 AM
EUR/USD
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Investing.com - The euro fell to a three-day low against the U.S. dollar on Friday, trimming some of the week’s gains as uncertainty over whether Greek lawmakers will approve a series of new austerity measures weighed on the single currency.

EUR/USD hit 1.3320 on Thursday, the pair’s highest since December 12; the pair subsequently consolidated at 1.3196 by close of trade on Friday, adding 0.60% over the week.

The pair is likely to find support at 1.3088, the low of February 7 and resistance at 1.3348, the high of November 30.

The euro came under pressure on Friday after Greece's far-right party leader refused to back a bailout agreement, raising concerns that Greece could face a sovereign debt default.   

Greek political leaders had reached a long awaited consensus on Thursday on the conditions set by international creditors in exchange for a new bailout worth EUR130 billion.

Meanwhile, official data showed that the U.S. trade deficit widened to USD48.8 billion in December, from a deficit of USD47.1 billion the previous month. Analysts had expected the trade balance to widen to USD48.1 billion in December.

A separate report by the University of Michigan showed that its index of consumer confidence in the U.S. fell to 72.5 in February from 75.0 the previous month, disappointing expectations for a decline to 74.4.

The single currency rose to a two-month high against the greenback on Thursday after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said that recent economic data had confirmed “signs of stabilization” in the region. The ECB also held interest rates at 1% at its policy meeting, in line with expectations.

Sentiment was also supported by official data showing that U.S. jobless claims fell to an almost four-year low last week.

The U.S. Department of Labor said the number of individuals filing for initial jobless benefits last week fell by 15,000 to a seasonally adjusted 358,000, beating expectations for a decline to 370,000. The previous week’s figure was revised up to 373,000 from 367,000.

Jobless claims have remained below 400,000, a level historically associated with an improving labor market, in 13 of the past 15 weeks.

In the week ahead, euro zone finance ministers are expected to meet on Tuesday to discuss Greece’s bailout deal, which should lead to a final approval by the country’s international lenders, including the International Monetary Fund and the ECB.

Investors will also be awaiting preliminary data on euro zone gross domestic product and U.S. retail sales, to assess the impact of the fiscal crisis in the euro zone on global growth.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets. The guide skips Monday as there are no relevant events on this day.

Tuesday, February 14

In the euro zone, France is to publish preliminary data on non-farm payrolls, an important indicator of consumer spending. In addition, the ZEW Centre for Economic Research is to publish reports on economic sentiment in Germany and the wider euro zone.

Also Tuesday, the U.S. is to produce official data on retail sales, as well as reports on import prices and business inventories, a signal of future business spending. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner is also due to speak later in the day.

Wednesday, February 15

In the euro zone, France and Germany are to publish preliminary reports on their respective GDPs. Preliminary data is also to be released on the GDP of the single currency bloc. Meanwhile, European finance ministers are scheduled to hold talks throughout the day.

The U.S. is to release a report on the Empire State Manufacturing index, a leading indicator of economic health, followed by data on net foreign purchases of long-term securities. The Federal Reserve is also to publish data on its capacity utilization rate, an important indicator of consumer inflation, as well as on industrial production before releasing the minutes of its latest policy meeting later in the day. The country is also to produce an official report on crude oil stockpiles.

Thursday, February 16

The ECB is to release its monthly bulletin, which provides investors with a detailed analysis of current and future economic conditions, from the bank’s perspective.

The U.S. is to publish government data on building permits, an important gauge of future construction activity, and housing starts, as well as reports on producer price inflation and unemployment claims. In addition, the country is to produce data on manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia area. Later in the day, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke is due to speak.

Friday, February 17

The U.S. is to round up the week with a government report on consumer price inflation.


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