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Forex - EUR/USD weekly outlook: December 15 - 19

Published 12/14/2014, 11:23 AM
© Reuters.  Euro pushes higher despite strong U.S. consumer sentiment report
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Investing.com - The euro gained ground against the dollar on Friday, but gains were held in check following a strong report on U.S. consumer sentiment, while falling oil prices and fears over political uncertainty in Greece continued to fuel risk aversion.

EUR/USD was up 0.44% to 1.2461 in late trade, extending its pullback from the two-year trough of 1.2246 struck on Monday.

The dollar found support after data showing U.S. consumer sentiment rose to an almost eight-year high in December.

The preliminary reading of the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index rose to 93.8, the highest level since January 2007 and ahead of forecasts of 89.7.

Consumer sentiment was boosted by the improving outlook for employment and wage growth and lower gasoline prices. The data underlined expectations for a hike in U.S. interest rates by the Federal Reserve next year.

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, recovered from session lows of 88.12 following the report to settle at 88.34, still off 0.26% for the day. On Monday the index rose to a five year high of 89.53.

Investors remained wary in the wake of a surprise decision by the Greek government to bring forward a parliamentary vote for president to next week from February.
The move raised the prospect of snap elections if Prime Minister Antonis Samaras’ candidate is not approved by parliament, which could see the anti-bailout Syriza party take power.

Economic reports pointing to a slowdown in China and the ongoing decline in oil prices also fuelled risk aversion.

Oil prices hit lows not seen since 2009 on Friday, with Brent below $62 per barrel and US crude down to $57 a barrel after the International Energy Agency cut its forecast for global oil demand for the fifth time in six months.

In the week ahead, investors will be awaiting the outcome of Wednesday’s Federal Reserve policy meeting for further clarification on when interest rates might start to rise. The euro zone is to produce what will be closely watched reports on private sector activity.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, December 15

In the euro zone, Germany’s Bundesbank is to publish its monthly report.

Later Monday, the U.S. is to release reports on manufacturing activity in the New York region and industrial production.

Tuesday, December 16

The euro zone is to publish preliminary data on private sector activity, while Germany and France are to also to publish data on private sector growth.

The ZEW Institute is to release its closely watched report on German economic sentiment, a leading indicator of economic health.

The U.S. is to publish reports on building permits and housing starts.

Wednesday, December 17

The euro zone is to produce revised data on consumer price inflation.

The U.S. is to release data on consumer inflation and the current account. Later Wednesday, the Federal Reserve is to publish its rate statement and economic projections for the next two years. Fed Chair Janet Yellen is to hold what will be a closely watched press conference.

Thursday, December 18

The Ifo Institute is to release a report on German business climate.

The U.S. is to release data on initial jobless claims and manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia region.

Friday, December 19

Germany is to release a report by Gfk on consumer climate.

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