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Forex - EUR/USD weekly outlook: December 1 - 5

Published 11/30/2014, 11:41 AM
Euro near two-year lows vs. dollar at week's end
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Investing.com - The euro ended the day lower against the dollar on Friday after data showed that euro zone inflation slowed to five year low this month and tumbling oil prices fuelled concerns over the outlook for the global economic recovery.

EUR/USD dipped 0.11% to 1.2451 late Friday, closing in on Monday’s two year lows of 1.2359.

Eurostat reported that the annual rate of euro area inflation slowed to a five year low of 0.3% this month, down from 0.4% in October.

The report said that falling energy prices were the main factor pressuring inflation lower. Energy prices have fallen 2.5% on a year-over-year basis and look likely to continue to drop in the wake of Thursday’s decision by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries not to cut output quotas.

The move fuelled a broad based selloff in oil prices and added to fears over the impact of growing deflationary pressures on the global economic recovery.

The weak inflation data was seen as increasing the likelihood that the European Central Bank will implement quantitative easing measures in a bid to spur growth and stave off the threat of deflation.

A separate report showed that the rate of unemployment in the euro area was unchanged at 11.5% last month.

The US dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, was up 0.45% to 88.41 late Friday, not far from the four-year highs of 88.52 set on Monday.

Elsewhere, the euro gained ground against the yen and the pound, with EUR/JPY up 0.65% to 147.66 and EUR/GBP rising 0.46% to 0.7958 in late trade.

The yen has weakened broadly since the Bank of Japan unexpectedly expanded its stimulus program on October 31.

Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe dissolved parliament earlier this month, clearing the way for elections to be held on December 15 to seek a fresh mandate for his economic policies, which call for a weaker yen. The decision came after data showing that Japan’s economy unexpectedly fell into recession in the third quarter.

In the week ahead investors will be focusing on the outcome of a policy meeting of the ECB on Thursday, which is to be followed by the U.S. jobs report for November on Friday.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, December 1

In the U.S., the Institute of Supply Management is to release data on manufacturing activity.

Tuesday, December 2

In the euro zone, Spain is to release data on the change in the number of people employed.

Wednesday, December 3

The euro zone is to release data on retail sales, the government measure of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity.

The U.S. is to release the ADP report on private sector job creation, while the ISM is to publish a report on U.S. service sector activity later in the day.

Thursday, December 4

The ECB is to announce its benchmark interest rate. The announcement is to be followed by a press conference with President Mario Draghi.

The U.S. is to release the weekly report on initial jobless claims.

Friday, December 5

In the euro zone, Germany is to release data on factory orders.

The U.S. is to round up the week with the closely watched government report on nonfarm payrolls, the unemployment rate and average earnings, as well as a report on factory orders.

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