Forex - EUR/USD weekly outlook: April 30 - May 4

Published 04/29/2012, 10:52 AM
EUR/USD
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Investing.com - The euro rose to a three-week high against the U.S. dollar on Friday, boosted by a successful Italian government bond auction while renewed expectations for further easing measures by the Federal Reserve weighed broadly on the greenback.

EUR/USD hit 1.3270 on Friday, the pair’s highest since April 3; the pair subsequently consolidated at 1.3250 by close of trade on Friday, climbing 0.50% over the week.

The pair was likely to find support at 1.3156, Friday’s low and resistance at 1.3292, the high of March 23.

The shared currency found support on Friday as a well-received auction of Italian government debt eased investor concerns over the euro zone, following a two-notch downgrade of Spain by ratings agency Standard & Poor’s.

S&P cut Spain’s long-term credit rating to BBB+ from A and gave it a negative outlook on Thursday, saying that the recession will undermine government efforts to reduce one of the largest budget deficits in the single currency bloc.

Earlier Friday, research group Gfk said that its index of Germany’s consumer climate fell to 5.6, from 5.8 the previous month whose figure was revised down from 5.9.

Analysts had expected Gfk consumer climate to remain unchanged at 5.9 last month.

The euro came under pressure on Thursday after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi called for a “growth compact” and a reexamination of where the euro zone is headed.

“We need to actively step up our reflections about the longer term vision for Europe as we have done in the past at other defining moments in the history of our union,” he added.

In the U.S., the Commerce Department said on Friday that gross domestic product expanded at a rate of 2.2% in the three months to March, below expectations for a 2.5% increase.

Earlier in the week, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke left open the possibility of further measures to bolster economic growth, following the central bank’s monetary policy meeting.

A separate report by the University of Michigan showed that its index of consumer sentiment rose unexpectedly to 76.4 in April, from 75.7 the previous month.

Analysts had expected the index to remain unchanged at 75.7 in April.

In the euro zone, investors will be looking ahead to Wednesday’s data on manufacturing activity, as well as the outcome of the ECB’s policy meeting on Thursday. In addition, both Spain and France are to hold auctions of government debt.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, April 30

The euro zone is to release preliminary data on consumer price inflation, which accounts for the majority of overall inflation, while the ECB is to publish a report on money supply. In addition, Germany is to release official data on retail sales, the primary gauge of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of economic activity.

The U.S. is to publish official data on core personal consumption expenditures price inflation and on personal spending, followed by a report on business activity in Chicago.

Tuesday, May 1

In Europe, markets in France, Germany, Italy and Switzerland are to remain closed due to national holidays.

In the U.S., the Institute for Supply Management is to release a closely watched report on manufacturing activity.

Wednesday, May 2

The euro zone is to publish official data the unemployment rate, while Germany is to release government data on unemployment change, an important signal of overall economic health. Euro zone finance ministers were also scheduled to meet for talks throughout the day.

Later in the day, the U.S. is to produce a report on non-farm employment change, a leading indicator of economic health, followed by government data on factory orders and crude oil stockpiles.

Thursday, May 3

In the euro zone, the ECB is to announce its benchmark interest rate. The announcement is to be followed by a press conference with ECB head Mario Draghi.

Later Thursday, the U.S. is to produce government data on unemployment claims, as well as preliminary data on nonfarm productivity and unit labor costs, an important signal of consumer inflation. The country is also to publish an ISM report on service sector growth.

Friday, May 4

The euro zone is to release official data on retail sales, the primary gauge of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of economic activity.

The U.S. is to round up the week by publishing its closely watched government data on non-farm employment change and the unemployment rate, as well as a report on average hourly earnings.


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