Forex - Dollar gains on U.S. jobs data, electoral uncertainty

Published 11/02/2012, 03:45 PM
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Investing.com - The dollar rose against most major global currencies on Friday after the U.S. October jobs report beat expectations, sparking demand for U.S. assets.

Investors opted for the greenback over stocks and other risk-on assets due to the proximity of U.S. presidential elections on Tuesday.

In U.S. trading on Friday, EUR/USD was down 0.87% at 1.2830.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics revealed earlier on Friday that the U.S. economy added 171,000 jobs in October, beating out analysts' calls for a gain of around 125,000, which sparked demand for U.S. assets.

The headline unemployment rate rose to 7.9% from 7.8% in September.

Investors snapped up greenback positions on the news, though they stopped short of engaging in a full risk-on session.

The economy didn't add enough jobs to reflect a more robust U.S. recovery.

Some analysts have said the economy should create at least 250,000  a month on an ongoing basis before recovery really gains steam.

U.S. voters go to the ballot box on Tuesday to elect a new president, and polls do not indicate that either President Barack Obama or his Republican challenger, Mitt Romney, have emerged as a clear frontrunner up to now.

Investors went long on the dollar on the last Friday before Election Day to ride out electoral uncertainty.

Results could have major long-range impacts on the dollar.

Mitt Romney has suggested he opposes the Federal Reserve's loose policies, including quantitative easing, under which the Fed buys bonds held by banks, pumping the economy full of liquidity to depress borrowing costs to spur recovery.

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's term ends in January of 2014, and a Romney victory could up the chances that today's head of the U.S. central bank could be replaced by a more hawkish figure.

In the more immediate future, a fast-approaching fiscal adjustment is due to strike the U.S. economy.

At the end of this year, the Bush-era tax cuts and other tax benefits expire at the same time pre-programmed cuts to government spending take effect, a combination known as a fiscal cliff that could send the country into recession if left unaddressed by Congress.

With elections behind them, a new Congress and the White House may be more willing to address politically unpopular tax and spending issues, though investors began to stock up on greenbacks in anticipation of political indecisiveness and market volatility.

The dollar also saw support on weak Spanish factory data.

The Markit research group reported that Spain's manufacturing purchasing managers' index fell more than expected in October, dropping to 43.5 from a reading 0f 44.6 the previous month.

The Markit research group reported that Spain's manufacturing purchasing managers' index fell more than expected in October, dropping to 43.5 from a reading 0f 44.6 the previous month.

Analysts were expecting a reading of 44.0.

Meanwhile, Italy's purchasing managers' index fell to 45.50 in October from 45.70 in September, disappointing expectations for a reading of 45.90.

The greenback, meanwhile, was up against the pound, with GBP/USD trading down 0.76% at 1.6009.

The dollar was up against the yen, with USD/JPY trading up 0.34% at 80.40 and up against the Swiss franc, with USD/CHF trading up 0.98% at 0.9410.

The dollar was mixed against its cousins in Canada, Australia and New Zealand, with USD/CAD trading down 0.05% at 0.9959, AUD/USD down 0.62% at 1.0335 and NZD/USD trading down 0.34% at 0.8241.

The dollar index, which tracks the performance of the greenback versus a basket of six other major currencies, was up 0.68% at 80.67.










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