Forex - Dollar gains as presidential elections loom large

Published 11/04/2012, 10:08 PM
Updated 11/04/2012, 10:10 PM
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Investing.com - The dollar rose against most major global currencies on Monday as investors snapped up safe-harbor greenback positions to await the results of Tuesday's presidential elections in the U.S.

President Barack Obama and challenger Mitt Romney are running neck and neck in the polls, fueling electoral uncertainty that made the dollar an attractive safe haven to ride out uncertainty,

In Asian trading on Monday, EUR/USD was down 0.05% at 1.2829.

U.S. voters go to the ballot box on Tuesday to elect a new president, and polls do not indicate that either President Barack Obama or Mitt Romney have emerged as a clear frontrunner up to now.

Results could have major long-range impacts on the dollar.

Mitt Romney has suggested he opposes the Federal Reserve's loose policies, including quantitative easing, under which the Fed buys bonds held by banks, pumping the economy full of liquidity to depress borrowing costs to spur recovery.

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's term ends in January of 2014, and a Romney victory could up the chances that today's head of the U.S. central bank could be replaced by a more hawkish figure.

In the more immediate future, a fast-approaching fiscal adjustment is due to strike the U.S. economy.

At the end of this year, the Bush-era tax cuts and other tax benefits expire at the same time pre-programmed cuts to government spending take effect, a combination known as a fiscal cliff that could push the country into recession if left unaddressed by Congress.

With elections behind them, a new Congress and the White House may be more willing to address politically unpopular tax and spending issues, though investors have begun to stock up on greenbacks in anticipation of political indecisiveness and market volatility.

The dollar also continued to see demand after the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics revealed the U.S. economy added 171,000 jobs in October, beating out analysts' calls for a gain of around 125,000.

The headline unemployment rate rose to 7.9% from 7.8% in September, as more unemployed workers jumped into the labor force by actively seeking work.

The news sparked sentiments that the Federal Reserve may hold off on any plans to beef up its ongoing round of quantitative easing, under which the U.S. central bank buys USD40 billion in mortgage debt from banks each month to spur recovery.

The greenback, meanwhile, was up against the pound, with GBP/USD trading down 0.02% at 1.6021.

The dollar was up against the yen, with USD/JPY trading up 0.06% at 80.52 and up against the Swiss franc, with USD/CHF trading up 0.15% at 0.9414.

The dollar was down against its cousins in Canada, Australia and New Zealand, with USD/CAD trading down 0.10% at 0.9948, AUD/USD up 0.18% at 1.0356 and NZD/USD trading up 0.03% at 0.8254.

The dollar index, which tracks the performance of the greenback versus a basket of six other major currencies, was up 0.11% at 80.73.

Later Monday in the U.S., the Institute of Supply Management is to publish data on service-sector activity.










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