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Forex - Aussie dollar holds gains after China HSBC PMI improves mildly

Published 05/20/2015, 10:06 PM
Updated 05/20/2015, 10:08 PM
Aussie dollar holds gains after HSBC China PMI
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Investing.com - The Australian dollar held early gains on Thursday in Asia with a slight pickup in the HSBC China manufacturing survey helping sentiment with China a top export destination and minutes from the Federal Reserve showed a rate hike is unlikely next month.

AUD/USD traded at 0.7880, up 0.08%, while USD/JPY changed hands at 121.18, down 0.14%. EUR/USD traded at 1.1115, up 0.19%.

In China, the May HSBC flash manufacturing PMI rose to 49.1, up slightly from a disappointing one-year low of 48.9 in April. The output index fell to 48.4 in the HSBC May survey, a 13-month-low.

"The Flash China Manufacturing PMI pointed to a further deterioration in operating conditions in April, with production declining for the first time in 2015 so far," said Annabel Fiddes, economist at Markit.

"Moreover, softer client demand, both at home and abroad, along with further job cuts indicate that the sector may find it difficult to expand, at least in the near-term, as companies tempered production plans in line with weaker demand conditions. On a positive note, deflationary pressures remained relatively strong, with both input and output prices continuing to decline, leaving plenty of scope for the authorities to implement further stimulus measures if required."

The People's Bank of China has cut interest rates three times since November last year to keep the economy on track.

Earlier, an inflation survey for May by the Melbourne Institute showed inflation expectations for Australian consumers up slightly in May.

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, fell 0.10% to 95.56.

Overnight, the dollar remained broadly higher against a basket of other major currencies on Wednesday, as the previous session's upbeat U.S. data fuelled optimism over the strength of the economy and as markets eyed the Federal Reserve's upcoming policy statement.

The greenback strengthened after the U.S. Commerce Department said on Tuesday that the number of building permits issued last month increased by 10.1% last month to 1.143 million units from March's total of 1.038 million.

The report also showed that U.S. housing starts soared by 20.2% in April to hit 1.135 million units from March's total of 944,000 units, easily surpassing expectations for an increase of 9.9%.

The single currency weakened as Athens was still scrambling to reach an agreement with its international lenders over economic reforms they say must be implemented before the final €7.2 billion tranche of the country's €240 billion bailout is released.

Greece is due to make a €305 million payment to the International Monetary Fund on June 5, but will default if a deal is not reached by then.

The euro was also hit after senior European Central Bank policymaker Benoit Coeure said on Tuesday that the central bank is planning to speed up the pace of its bond-buying stimulus program before the summer in order to avoid the "notably lower market liquidity" in late July and August.

Federal Reserve officials believed it would be premature to hike interest rates in June even though most felt the U.S. economy was set to rebound from a dismal start to the year, according to minutes from their April policy meeting released on Wednesday.

The central bank debated whether a slew of disappointing data, including weak consumer spending, signaled a temporary slump or evidence of a longer-lasting slowdown, with most participants agreeing economic growth would climb to a healthier pace and the labor market would strengthen.

The U.S. economy grew an anemic 0.1 percent in the first quarter, according to the most recent government data.

The minutes from the April 28-29 policy-setting committee meeting also highlighted the quandary the Fed faces in trying to avoid the market volatility tied to a rate hike while sticking to its meeting-by-meeting guidance on when that move will come.

With an increased amount of uncertainty and signs of softness across the economy, the minutes showed Fed officials pushing the prospect of a rate hike later into the year.

"Many participants, however, thought it unlikely that the data available in June would provide sufficient confirmation that the conditions for raising (interest rates) had been satisfied ...," the minutes said.

U.S. Treasury prices were largely unchanged after the release of the minutes, while short-term interest rate futures and TIPS inflation break-even rates held firm, as did stocks.

Fed officials flagged a number of concerns including disappointment that falling oil prices did not spur consumer spending as much as had been hoped. They also cited economic worries in China and Greece.

They also were troubled by the behavior of the bond market, which Fed Chair Janet Yellen spoke about earlier this month. The minutes show central bank officials believe bond market volatility was higher now because of high-frequency traders, decreased inventories of bonds held by broker-dealers, and elevated assets of bond funds.

To avoid a disruptive spike in long-term bond rates, Fed officials discussed whether the central bank should better telegraph a rate hike in post-meeting communications. But most said keeping to the meeting-by-meeting policy was best for now.

The "taper tantrum" of 2013, when emerging-market currencies and stocks plunged en masse on the suggestion that Fed bond-buying could be reduced, has loomed over the central bank as it nears its so-called rate lift-off.

The minutes largely reflected the Fed's April policy statement, which pointed to economic softness but described the slow growth as reflecting, in part, transitory factors such as bad weather and a U.S. port disruption.

Investors now will focus on a Yellen speech on Friday for signs of whether she believes the economy is back on track, or if she nods to the latest batch of weak data.

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