Forex - AUD/USD weekly outlook: September 3 - 7

Published 09/02/2012, 07:52 AM
AUD/USD
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Investing.com - The Australian dollar ended the week lower against its U.S. counterpart, although it found some support on Friday after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke signaled the possibility for fresh easing measures in the near future.

AUD/USD hit 1.0274 on Thursday, the pair’s lowest since July 25; the pair subsequently consolidated at 1.0319 by close of trade on Friday, shedding 0.97% over the week.

The pair is likely to find support at 1.0242, the low of July 23 and resistance at 1.0397, the high of August 29.

The Aussie rebounded from a five-week low against the greenback on Friday, after Fed Chairman Bernanke said the persistently high rate of unemployment was a “grave concern”.

Speaking at the Fed’s annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, he reiterated that the central bank was ready to provide additional policy accommodation as needed to shore up growth.

Official data on Wednesday showed that the U.S. economy expanded at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.7% in the three months to June, slightly higher than the preliminary estimate of 1.5%, but remained below the 2-2.5% rate required every quarter to hold the unemployment rate steady.

Bernanke downplayed the risks of quantitative easing and said the program had been effective in providing “meaningful support" to the recovery.

Meanwhile, risk sentiment remained supported by expectations that the European Central Bank is working on measures to help stabilize the euro zone's sovereign debt markets ahead of its upcoming meeting on September 6.

On Thursday, Italy saw borrowing costs ease at an auction of five and 10-year bonds, reflecting renewed optimism that European leaders are making progress in tackling the region’s debt crisis.

In Australia, official data showed on Thursday that building approvals tumbled far more than expected in July, tumbling 17.3% after a revised 1% decline the previous month.

Analysts had expected building approvals to fall 4.8% in July.

In the week ahead, markets will be focusing on the ECB’s post-policy meeting press conference on Thursday, as investors await more details about the size and scope of the bank’s bond purchasing program from President Mario Draghi.

The U.S. is to release its monthly report on non-farm payrolls on Friday, which will allow investors to gauge the strength of the faltering labor market.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, September 3

Australia is to produce official data on retail sales, the primary gauge of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity. The country is also to publish industry data on job advertisements, followed by an official report on company operating profits.

Markets in the U.S. are to remain closed for the Labor Day holiday.

Tuesday, September 4

The Reserve Bank of Australia is to announce its benchmark interest rate; the announcement is to be accompanied by the bank’s rate statement, which contains insights into current economic conditions from the bank’s perspective. The country is also to release official data on the current account.

The U.S. is to publish a report by the Institute for Supply Management on manufacturing PMI.

Wednesday, September 5

Australia is to release official data on second quarter gross domestic product, the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary gauge of the economy's health, as well as data on service sector activity.

Later in the day, the U.S. is to produce revised data on nonfarm productivity.

Thursday, September 6

Australia is to publish official data on employment change and the unemployment rate, a leading indicator of economic health.

The U.S. is to produce industry data on non-farm employment change, followed by weekly government data on unemployment claims. The country is also to release a report by the Institute for Supply Management on non-manufacturing activity, as well as government data on crude oil stockpiles.

Friday, September 7

Australia is to release official data on trade balance, which is the difference in value between imported and exported goods and services.

The U.S. is to round up the week with closely watched official data on non-farm payrolls and the unemployment rate, as well as a report on average hourly earnings.


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