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Forex - AUD/USD weekly outlook: September 2 - 6

Published 09/01/2013, 09:39 AM
AUD/USD
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Investing.com - The Australian dollar ended Friday’s session at a three-week low against its U.S. counterpart, as mounting concerns over possible U.S. military action against Syria underpinned safe haven demand.

AUD/USD hit 0.8892 on Friday, the pair’s lowest level since August 5; the pair subsequently consolidated at 0.8904 by close of trade on Friday, down 0.29% on the day and 1.35% lower for the week.

The pair is likely to find support at 0.8846, the low from August 5 and resistance at 0.8977, Thursday’s high.

Concerns over a possible U.S. military intervention mounted after U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said Friday that the U. S. would punish Syrian President Bashar al-Assad for a "brutal and flagrant" chemical weapons attack that killed nearly 1,500 people in Damascus.

Meanwhile, in the U.S., the Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan revised consumer sentiment index for August released Friday rose to 82.0 from a preliminary reading 80.0, beating expectations for an uptick to 80.5.

Also Friday, a widely-watched Chicago purchasing managers' index rose to 53.0 this month from 52.3 in July, in line with expectations.

The data came one day after a government report showed that U.S. second quarter growth was revised sharply higher, indicating that the economic recovery is on track.

The Commerce Department said gross domestic product expanded at an annual rate of 2.5% in the three months to June, above expectations for growth of 2.2% and up from a preliminary estimate of 1.7%.

The upbeat data reinforced the view that the Fed could taper down its bond purchases at its next policy meeting amid increasing signs of a recovery in the U.S. economy.

The central bank is scheduled to meet September 17-18 to review the economy and assess policy.

In the week ahead, markets in the U.S. are to remain closed on Monday for the Labor Day holiday. Investors will be closely watching Friday’s key U.S. nonfarm payrolls report.

Market players have closely been looking out for U.S. data reports recently to gauge if they will strengthen or weaken the case for the Fed to reduce its bond purchases.

Any improvement in the U.S. economy was likely to reinforce the view that the central bank will begin to taper its bond purchase program in the coming months.

The outcome of Tuesday’s Reserve Bank of Australia policy meeting will also be in focus. On August 6, the RBA lowered its benchmark interest rate to a record low 2.5%.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, September 2

Australia is to publish data on building approvals, a leading indicator of future construction sector activity.

Markets in the U.S. are to remain closed for the Labor Day holiday.

Tuesday, September 3

The RBA is to announce its benchmark interest rate and publish its rate statement, which outlines economic conditions and the factors affecting the monetary policy decision.

Australia is to produce official data on retail sales, the government measure of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity, as well as a report on the current account.

Later in the day, the Institute of Supply Management is to release data on manufacturing activity in the U.S., a leading indicator of economic health.

Wednesday, September 4

Australia is to release data on second quarter GDP, the broadest indicator of economic activity and the leading measure of the economy’s health.

The U.S. is to release data on the trade balance, the difference in value between imports and exports.

Thursday, September 5

Australia is to release official data on the trade balance.

The U.S. is to release the ADP nonfarm payrolls report on private sector job creation, as well as the weekly government report on initial jobless claims.

Later Thursday, the ISM is to release data on non-manufacturing activity in the U.S., a leading indicator of economic health.

Friday, September 6

The U.S. is to round up the week with closely watched government data on nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rate, as well as data on average hourly earnings.

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