Forex - AUD/USD weekly outlook: September 19-23

Published 09/18/2011, 09:23 AM
AUD/USD
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Investing.com – Last week saw the Australian dollar drop to a five-week low against its U.S. counterpart mid-week, before trimming a weekly loss as the greenback came under pressure after the European Central Bank announced measures to boost dollar liquidity.

AUD/USD hit 1.0177 on Wednesday, the lowest since August 11; the pair subsequently consolidated at 1.0357 by close of trade on Friday, shedding 0.69% on the week, the second consecutive weekly decline.      

The pair was likely to find support at 1.0177, Wednesday’s low and short-term resistance at 1.0440, the high of September 12.

The Aussie fell to a five-week low on Wednesday after the Australian Bureau of Statistics announced core inflation averaged a seasonally adjusted rise of 0.6% in the second quarter, down from a previously reported increase of 0.9%.

The downward revision added to concerns that the Reserve Bank of Australia would cut rates in the coming months.    

The Aussie regained strength on Thursday as risk sentiment improved after the European Central Bank announced that it would provide additional dollar liquidity to euro area lenders in a move coordinated with the Federal Reserve and other major central banks.

The U.S. dollar came under further pressure after government data showed that U.S. retail sales were unchanged in August, following a smaller-than-expected 0.3% gain in July, while a separate report showed that U.S. jobless claims rose more-than-expected.

Other reports showed that U.S. consumer prices rose slightly more than expected last month while manufacturing activity in New York and Philadelphia contracted in September.

The Aussie edged higher on Friday, but gains were limited after a meeting of European Union finance ministers in Poland failed to produce an agreement on how to resolve the region’s debt woes.

Fears over a possible Greek debt default also weighed on sentiment as EU ministers postponed a decision to release the next tranche of aid to the debt-laden country until next month.

In the coming week, investors will be watching the outcome of the Federal Reserve’s extended policy setting meeting on Wednesday for any signs that the bank is looking at providing fresh monetary stimulus to support the economy, while developments in the euro zone also look likely to remain in focus.

Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of Australia is to publish the minutes of its September 6 policy-setting meeting, when it left rates unchanged at 4.75% for the ninth straight meeting. 

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets. The guide skips Monday, as there are no relevant events on the day.

Tuesday, September 20


The Reserve Bank of Australia is to publish the minutes of its most recent monetary policy meeting. The minutes give investors an insight in to current economic conditions from the bank’s point of view.

Later in the day, the U.S. is to publish government data on building permits, an excellent gauge of future construction activity, as well as a report on housing starts, a leading indicator of economic health.

Wednesday, September 21

Australia is to publish an index of leading economic indicators, designed to forecast the future direction of the economy. Also Wednesday, RBA Assistant Governor Philip Lowe is to speak at a public event in Sydney.

Meanwhile, the U.S. is to publish industry data on existing home sales as well as a government report on crude oil inventories.

In addition, the Federal Reserve is to announce the federal funds rate. The bank's rate statement will be closely watched by investors for any clues to the future direction of monetary policy.

Thursday, September 22


The U.S. is to publish its weekly report on initial jobless claims.

Friday, September 23

Australia is to publish an index of leading economic indicators, while the RBA is to release its financial stability review.


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