Forex - AUD/USD weekly outlook: October 18-22

Published 10/17/2010, 09:28 AM
AUD/USD
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Investing.com – Last week saw the Australian dollar reach parity against its U.S. counterpart for the first time since exchange controls ended in 1983 before retreating following circumspect remarks on monetary easing by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke.

AUD/USD hit 1.0002 on Friday, a record high, the pair subsequently consolidated at 0.9905 by close of trade, advancing 0.49% over the week.

The pair is likely to find support at 0.9766, the low of October 12 and short-term resistance at 1.0002.

During a speech in Boston, Bernanke said there was a case for further monetary easing, given ongoing high unemployment and low inflation but added that officials "will take account of the potential costs and risks" of further easing. He also said that any action would be "contingent on incoming information about the economic outlook and financial conditions."

Meanwhile, Australian Treasurer Wayne Swann said that reaching parity was a ''milestone'', and reflected a ''stark difference in the strength of our economy relative to other nations''.

He also signaled that the country would take a ‘hands-off’ approach saying, “attempts to artificially depress the value of the currency would be counterproductive as they would only succeed in driving inflation and interest rates higher, with damaging consequences for all sectors of the economy''.

In the week ahead, the U.S. is to release key weekly data on initial jobless claims, as well as important data on building permits, housing starts, manufacturing activity and foreign investment while the Federal Reserve is to publish its Beige Book.

Meanwhile, Australia’s central bank is to publish the minutes of the most recent meeting of its monetary policy committee while later in the week the bank is to publish its annual report. The country is also to publish data on new vehicle sales and a leading economic index.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect AUD/USD.

Monday, October 18

Australia is to open the week with official data on new motor vehicle sales, a leading indicator of consumer confidence.

Meanwhile, the U.S. is to publish official data on the difference in value between foreign long-term securities purchased by U.S. citizens and U.S. long-term securities purchased by foreigners. The country is also to release a report on the capacity utilization rate as well as data on industrial production, a leading indicator of economic health.

Tuesday, October 19


The Reserve Bank of Australia is to publish the minutes of the most recent meeting of its monetary policy committee. The minutes provide in-depth insight into the economic conditions that influenced the decision on where to set interest rates. Later in the day the country is to publish an index of leading economic indicators, designed to predict the future direction of the economy.

Also Tuesday, the U.S. is to publish official data on building permits and housing starts, both leading indicators of health in the housing sector.

Wednesday, October 20

In the U.S., the Federal Reserve is to release its Beige Book, a summary of the data the bank examines before setting the benchmark interest rate. The U.S. is also set to produce data on crude oil inventories.

Thursday, October 21

The U.S. is to release key weekly data on initial jobless claims, while the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia is due to release a report on the city’s manufacturing sector. The country is also due to publish an index of leading economic indicators, designed to predict the future direction of the economy.

Also Thursday, the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis, James Bullard is to speak at a public engagement. His comments will be closely watched for any clues to the future direction of monetary policy.

Friday, October 22

The President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas, Thomas Hoenig is to speak at a public engagement.

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