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Forex - AUD/USD weekly outlook: November 25 - 29

Published 11/24/2013, 09:03 AM
AUD/USD
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Investing.com - The Australian dollar tumbled to an 11-week low against its U.S. counterpart on Friday, amid speculation the Federal Reserve will scale back monetary stimulus sooner than expected and following comments made by Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Glenn Stevens.

AUD/USD hit 0.9144 on Friday, the pair’s lowest since September 6; the pair subsequently consolidated at 0.9170 by close of trade on Friday, down 0.7% on the day and 2.15% lower for the week.

The pair is likely to find support at 0.9115, the low from September 6 and resistance at 0.9248, Friday’s high.

Demand for the U.S. dollar continued to be underpinned after Wednesday’s minutes of the Federal Reserve’s October meeting said the bank could start scaling back its USD85 billion-a-month asset purchase program in the “coming months” if the economy continues to improve as expected.

Data released Thursday showed that U.S. manufacturing activity improved to an eight-month high of 54.3 in November from a reading of 51.8 in October.

Also Thursday, government data said that the number of people filing for initial jobless benefits last week fell by 21,000 to a seasonally adjusted 323,000, the lowest since September.

The Aussie came under additional pressure after RBA Governor Stevens said Thursday that the Australian dollar is too strong, while adding that foreign-exchange intervention is still an option.

The comments came after minutes of the RBA’s latest policy meeting said that there was "mounting evidence" rate cuts were working although it retained the option of loosening policy further to support growth, adding that the Aussie was still "uncomfortably high".

In the week ahead, investors will be closely watching a flurry of U.S. data to further gauge the strength of the economy and the need for stimulus from the Federal Reserve.

The U.S. is to release a series of reports on the housing sector, as well as data on consumer confidence and durable goods orders in the coming week.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, November 25

The U.S. is to release private sector data on pending home sales, a leading indicator of economic health.

Tuesday, November 26

The U.S. is to produce data on building permits, a leading indicator of future construction activity as well as a report on housing starts. The nation is also to release private sector data on consumer confidence and house price inflation.

Wednesday, November 27

Australia is to release data on completed construction work, an important gauge of activity in the sector.

The U.S. is to release data on durable goods orders, a leading indicator of production, as well as a report on manufacturing activity in the Chicago region and revised data on consumer sentiment. The Labor Department is to release the weekly report on initial jobless claims one day ahead of schedule due to Thursday’s Thanksgiving holiday.

Thursday, November 28

Australia is to produce data on private capital expenditure.

Markets in the U.S. will be closed for the Thanksgiving holiday.

Friday, November 29

Australia is to produce data on private sector credit.

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