Forex - AUD/USD weekly outlook: November 22-26

Published 11/21/2010, 08:20 AM
AUD/USD
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Investing.com – Last week saw the Australian dollar close lower against its U.S. counterpart as risk appetite was hit by fears over sovereign debt contagion in the euro zone and after China introduced fresh monetary tightening measures to curb inflation.

AUD/USD hit 0.9724 on Tuesday, the pair’s lowest since October 29; the pair subsequently consolidated at 0.9864 by close of trade on Friday, shedding 0.24% over the week.

The pair is likely to find support at 0.9724, last Tuesday’s low and resistance at 1.0002, the high of November 12.

Australia’s dollar rebounded from Tuesday's low as speculation mounted that Ireland would accept a bailout from the European Union.

But the Aussie turned lower on Friday, snapping two days of gains after the People’s Bank of China announced that it was raising the reserve requirement ratio for banks for the fifth time this year, effectively draining cash from the financial system to order to curb inflation.

The move followed Wednesday’s announcement by Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao that the government was drafting measures aimed at curbing food and commodity prices after consumer prices surged to a 25-month high in October. China is Australia’s largest trading partner.

Also last week, the Reserve Bank of Australia published the minutes of its November monetary policy meeting. The RBA said its decision to tighten policy was finely balanced as mining investment, job growth and overseas demand helped propel the nation’s economy.

The RBA increased its benchmark interest rate at that meeting to 4.75% after a five-month pause.

Next week, the U.S. is due to release a slew of data in a week cut short by the Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday, including revised figures on gross domestic product for the third quarter, durable goods orders, and personal income. The country is also to release its weekly report on jobless claims, while the Fed is to release the minutes of its most recent monetary policy meeting.

Meanwhile, Australia is to publish an index of leading economic indicators as well as official data on construction and private capital expenditure. Also, the Governor of the RBA is to testify before the House of Representatives economic committee.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets. The guide skips Monday and Friday as there are no relevant events on these days.

Tuesday, November 23


The U.S. is to begin the week with revised figures on third quarter GDP, the leading indicator of economic growth. The country is also to publish industry data on existing home sales while the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond is to publish its manufacturing index. Later in the day, the Fed is to publish the minutes of its November monetary policy meeting, providing an in-depth insight into economic and financial conditions in the U.S.

Meanwhile, Australia is to publish an index of leading economic indicators, an important indicator of economic health.

Wednesday, November 24

The U.S. is to release a slew of data, with official data on initial jobless claims, a leading indicator of economic health as well as government data on personal spending, durable goods orders and new home sales. The country is also to publish revised data on consumer sentiment and inflation expectations as well as reports on crude oil and natural gas inventories.

Also Wednesday, Australia is to publish official data on the value of completed construction projects which gives an insight into the GDP data released the following week.

Thursday, November 25


Markets in the U.S. will remain closed in observance of Thanksgiving Day.

Meanwhile, Australia is to release key data on private capital expenditure, a leading indicator of economic health. Later in the day, Reserve Bank of Australia Governor, Glenn Stevens is to testify before the House of Representatives Standing Committee on Economics; his comments will be closely watched for any clues to the future direction of monetary policy.

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