Forex - AUD/USD weekly outlook: November 12 - 16

Published 11/11/2012, 09:58 AM
AUD/USD
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Investing.com - The Australian dollar was lower against the U.S. dollar on Friday, as broadly better-than-expected Chinese economic data was overshadowed by concerns over the situation in the euro zone and worries over U.S. fiscal policy.

AUD/USD hit 1.0479 on Wednesday, the pair subsequently consolidated at 1.0384 by close of trade on Friday, still up 0.44% for the week.

The pair is likely to find support at 1.0331, the low of November 5 and resistance at 1.0479, Wednesday’s high and a six-week high.

Official data on Friday showed that Chinese automobile sales, consumer spending and factory output all improved in October, indicating that growth in the world’s second largest economy is gathering momentum.

The data came one day after government data showed that the Australian economy added 10,700 jobs in October, far more than the expected 200 increase, while the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 5.4%, beating expectations for a rise to 5.5%.

But market sentiment remained downbeat on Friday after Germany’s Economic Ministry warned that growth in the bloc’s largest economy was likely to weaken in the fourth quarter and going into the first quarter of 2013.

Market participants were also anticipating a Greek vote on the 2013 budget on Sunday, just days after the parliament narrowly approved a new austerity package needed to secure the next tranche of bailout funds.

Without the next aid installment, Greece risks default on November 16, when Athens must repay EUR5 billion of debts.

The greenback also found support amid concerns over the U.S. fiscal cliff, automatic tax hikes and spending cuts due to come into effect on January 1 unless lawmakers can reach an agreement, which could threaten U.S. and global growth.

In the coming week, investors will be anticipating preliminary data on third quarter growth from the euro zone, amid concerns that the economic downturn in the region is deepening. Markets will also be closely following developments in Greece and Spain.

In the U.S., the Federal Reserve is to publish the minutes of its most recent policy setting meeting.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, November 12

Australia is to produce official data on home loans, a leading indicator of demand in the housing market. The country is also to release a report on business confidence.

Markets in the U.S. are to remain closed on Monday for a national holiday.

Tuesday, November 13

The U.S. is to release official data on the federal budget balance.

Wednesday, November 14

Australia is to release private sector data on consumer sentiment, as well as a government report on the wage price index, a leading indicator of consumer inflation.

The U.S. is to produce government data on retail sales, the leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity.

The country is also to release official data on producer price inflation and business inventories, while the Fed is to publish the minutes of its most recent policy-setting meeting.

Thursday, November 15

Australia is to release a report on inflation expectations, as well as official data on new vehicle sales.

The U.S. is to release a flurry of data, with reports on initial jobless claims, consumer price inflation, crude oil stockpiles, in addition to data on manufacturing activity in New York and Philadelphia.

Meanwhile, a speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke would be closely watched for any indications on the future possible direction of monetary policy.

Friday, November 16

The U.S. is to round up the week with official data on the capacity utilization rate and industrial production, as well as a report on the balance of domestic and foreign securities purchases.



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