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Forex - AUD/USD weekly outlook: May 6 - 10

Published 05/05/2013, 09:49 AM
AUD/USD
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EUR/AUD
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Investing.com - The Australian dollar ended Friday’s session sharply higher against its U.S. counterpart, as market sentiment improved after official data showed that the U.S. economy added more jobs than expected in April.

AUD/USD hit 1.0384 on Tuesday, the pair’s highest since April 17; the pair subsequently consolidated at 1.0315 by close of trade on Friday, up 0.37% for the week.

The pair is likely to find support at 1.0220, Thursday’s low and resistance at 1.0380, Wednesday’s high.

The U.S. Department of Labor said the economy added 165,000 jobs in April, above expectations for an increase of 145,000, while job increases for the previous month were revised up to 138,000.

The U.S. unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to a four-month low of 7.5% from 7.6% in March.

Also Friday, a report by the Institute of Supply Management showed that the U.S. service sector expanded at the slowest pace in nine months in April.

The ISM non-manufacturing purchasing managers’ index fell to 53.1 from 54.4 in March, below expectations for a reading of 54.0.

A separate report showed that U.S. factory orders fell 4.0% in March, more than expectations for a 2.6% decline.

On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve recommitted to its USD85 billion a month asset purchase program and indicated that it could increase or decrease the monthly amount, depending on the outlook for inflation and employment.

Meanwhile, in Australia, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said Friday that producer price inflation rose 0.3% in the first quarter, above estimates for 0.2% increase. Australia's PPI was 0.2% in the prior quarter.

The data came one day after a government report showed that building approvals in Australia fell 5.5% in March, confounding expectations for a 1.2% increase, after a 3% gain the previous month.

Elsewhere, the Aussie was higher against the euro on Friday, with EUR/AUD shedding 0.26% to hit 1.2716.

The single currency looked likely to remain under pressure after the European Central Bank cut interest rates to 0.5% from 0.75% on Thursday amid concerns over the deteriorating economic outlook for the euro zone.

The euro fell sharply on Thursday after ECB President Mario Draghi said the bank has an “open mind” on a negative deposit rate for banks. The deposit rate is the rate paid by the ECB on overnight deposits by euro zone banks.

In the week ahead, investors will be anticipating an interest rate decision by the Reserve Bank of Australia, as well as the release of Australian retail sales and employment data.

Market players will also be looking ahead to a speech by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets. The guide skips Wednesday as there are no relevant events on that day.

Monday, May 6

Australia is to produce official data on retail sales, the government measure of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity.

Tuesday, May 7

The RBA is to announce its benchmark interest rate. The rate announcement is to be accompanied by the bank’s rate statement, which contains important insights into current and future economic conditions from the bank’s perspective.

Australia is also to publish official data on the trade balance and house price inflation.

Thursday, May 9

Australia is to release government data on the change in the number of people employed and the unemployment rate, a leading economic indicator.

Meanwhile, the U.S. is to publish the weekly government report on initial jobless claims.

Also Thursday, China is to release official data on consumer price inflation, which accounts for the majority of overall inflation. The Asian nation is Australia’s largest trade partner.

Friday, May 10

The RBA is to publish its monetary policy statement, which outlines the factors that influenced the bank’s rate decision.

In the U.S., Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke is to speak; his comments will be closely watched. The U.S. is also to release official data on the federal budget balance.

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