Forex - AUD/USD weekly outlook: May 27 - 31

Published 05/26/2013, 09:20 AM
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Investing.com - The Australian dollar ended Friday’s session sharply lower against its U.S. counterpart, hovering near an 11-month low as investors sold growth-linked assets on concerns over China’s economic outlook and amid speculation that the Federal Reserve will scale back its asset purchase program this year.

AUD/USD hit 0.9592 on Friday, the pair’s lowest since June 1, 2012; the pair subsequently consolidated at 0.9646 by close of trade on Friday, down 0.82% for the week.

The pair is likely to find support at 0.9592, Thursday’s low and resistance at 0.9750, Friday’s session high.

The Aussie came under heavy selling pressure on Thursday after data showed that manufacturing activity in China contracted for the first time in seven months in May.

China’s HSBC Flash Purchasing Managers Index, the earliest indicator of the country's industrial activity, fell to a seven-month low of 49.6 in May from a final reading of 50.4 in April.

The Asian nation is Australia’s largest trade partner.

Meanwhile, the greenback remained supported after Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said on Wednesday that a decision to scale back the U.S. central bank’s USD85 billion-dollar-a-month asset purchase program could be taken in the "next few meetings" depending on economic data.

Wednesday’s minutes from the U.S. central bank’s May meeting showed a "number" of policymakers were prepared to taper bonds purchases as soon as June.

In Australia, the minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s most recent policy meeting released earlier in the week showed that the bank cut its benchmark interest rate to a record low this month to boost businesses weakened by the currency’s sustained strength, even as households reacted to earlier reductions.

The RBA also said that economic growth was expected to be a little below trend this year, picking up gradually to be close to trend through 2014.

Elsewhere, the Aussie was also lower against the euro, with EUR/AUD rising 1% on Friday to hit 1.3402.

The single currency was boosted after data released Friday showed that Germany’s Ifo index of business climate rose to 105.7 from 104.4 in April, fuelling optimism over the outlook for the euro zone’s largest economy. Analysts had expected the index to tick up to 104.5.

In the week ahead, traders will be focusing on a flurry of U.S. economic data, including reports on the housing sector, consumer confidence and initial jobless claims.

Market players will also be looking ahead to a report on Australian building approvals.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, May 27

U.S. markets are to remain closed for the Memorial Day holiday.

Tuesday, May 28

The U.S. is to produce private sector data on house price inflation, in addition to data on consumer confidence, a leading economic indicator.

Wednesday, May 29

Australia is to publish official data on completed construction work, an important economic indicator.

Thursday, May 30

Australia is to release official data on building approvals and private capital expenditure.

The U.S. is to release revised data on first quarter economic growth, in addition to the weekly report on initial jobless claims and data on pending home sales.

Friday, May 31

Australia is to release official data on private sector credit.

The U.S. is to round up the week with revised data on consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan, as well as data on personal income and expenditure and a report on manufacturing activity in Chicago.

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