Forex - AUD/USD weekly outlook: March 19 - 23

Published 03/18/2012, 10:53 AM
AUD/USD
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Investing.com - The Australian dollar ended the week slightly higher against its U.S. counterpart on Friday, as optimism over signs that the U.S. economic outlook is improving bolstered demand for riskier assets.

AUD/USD hit 1.044 on Thursday, the pair’s lowest since January 20; the pair subsequently consolidated at 1.0589 by close of trade on Friday, easing up 0.23% over the week.

The pair is likely to find support at 1.0422, Thursday’s low and a seven-week low and resistance at 1.0669, the high of March 8.

Demand for the greenback was hit on Friday, after the U.S. Department of Labor said consumer price inflation rose 0.4% in February, in line with expectations, fueled largely by pricier gasoline.

Core inflation rates, which are stripped of volatile food and energy prices, rose 0.1%, below expectations for a gain of 0.2%.

The soft data fuelled speculation that the Federal Reserve could maintain a policy of economic stimulus, which would dilute the greenback.

Sentiment on the greenback was dented after U.S. industrial production numbers came in flat in February, below expectations for a 0.4% gain, while the University of Michigan’s consumer confidence index also disappointed, coming in at 74.3, below expectations for a reading of 75.7.

The greenback had rallied against its major counterparts earlier in the week, as investors trimmed back expectations for another round of quantitative easing from the Federal Reserve after the central bank upgraded its outlook on the economy and acknowledged the recent improvement in the labor market.

However, policymakers reiterated their intention to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged at a record low through late 2014 and warned that risks to the economic recovery still remained.

In the week ahead, the U.S. is to release a flurry of data on the housing sector, which investors will be watching closely to gauge the strength of the economic recovery. Elsewhere, the governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia is to speak.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, March 19

The Governor of the RBA Glenn Stevens is to speak; his comments will be closely watched for possible indications on the future direction of monetary policy.

Tuesday, March 20

The RBA is to publish the minutes of its March monetary policy meeting, which give investors a detailed insight into current economic conditions from the bank’s perspective. Australia is also to publish an index of leading economic indicators, designed to predict the future direction of the economy.

The U.S. is to produce official data on building permits, an excellent gauge of future construction activity, as well as data on housing starts, a leading indicator of economic health. Also Tuesday, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke is to speak at an event in Washington; his comments will be closely watched for possible indications on the future direction of monetary policy.

Wednesday, March 21

Australia is to publish an index of leading economic indicators, designed to predict the future direction of the economy.

Also Wednesday, the U.S. is to release industry data on existing home sales, a leading indicator of economic health, as well as official data on crude oil stockpiles.

Thursday, March 22

The U.S. is to publish official data on initial jobless claims, a leading indicator of economic health. Also Thursday, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke is to speak at an event in Washington; his comments will be closely watched for possible indications on the future direction of monetary policy.

Friday, March 23

The U.S. is to round up the week with official data on new home sales, a leading indicator of economic health.



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