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Forex - AUD/USD weekly outlook: January 3-7

Published 01/02/2011, 07:35 AM
AUD/USD
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Investing.com – Last Friday saw the Australian dollar reach a 28-year peak against its U.S. counterpart, supported by strong commodity prices and thin year-end trade which exaggerated price moves.

AUD/USD hit 1.0254 on Friday, the highest since July 1982; the pair subsequently consolidated at 1.0228 by close of trade, up 2.07% over the week.

The pair is likely to find support at 1.0118, last Thursday’s low, and resistance at 1.0290.

The Australian dollar rallied 13% against the dollar in 2010 and jumped 22% against the euro, making it one of the best performing currencies in 2010.

The currency was underpinned by record high copper prices and strong gains in iron ore, one of Australia's top exports, as strong global growth, particularly in China lifted commodity prices. China is a major importer of raw materials from Australia.

However, the prospect of a slowdown in China remains a risk for the Aussie going into 2011, with its strong gains making it ripe for a correction in the New Year.

In the week ahead, the U.S. is to release employment data for December on Friday while Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is to testify before the Senate budget panel the same day.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, January 3

Markets in Australia will remain closed for the New Year’s Day bank holiday.
 
Meanwhile, the U.S. is to publish industry data on manufacturing activity, a leading indicator of economic health, as well as a report on construction spending.

Tuesday, January 4

In the U.S., the Federal Reserve is to publish the minutes of its most recent monetary policy committee meeting, which provide an in-depth insight into the country’s economic and financial outlook. The country is also to publish official data on factory orders, a leading indicator of industrial production.

Meanwhile, Australia is to publish official data on commodity prices, which account for over half of the country’s export earnings. The country is also to produce data on manufacturing activity.

Wednesday, January 5

The U.S. is to publish data on ADP non-farm payrolls, which leads the government-released employment data by two days. Later in the day, the country is to publish a report on service sector growth, a leading indicator of economic growth as well as a report on crude oil stockpiles.

Elsewhere, Australia is to publish industry data on new home sales as well as a report on service sector activity.

Thursday, January 6


The U.S. is to publish key weekly data on initial jobless claims, a leading indicator of overall economic health.

Meanwhile, Australia is to publish official data on building approvals as well as a report on activity in the construction sector, both leading indicators of future construction activity.

Friday, January 7


The U.S. is to round up the week with key data on non-farm employment change and a report on the country's unemployment rate, both leading indicators of economic health. Later in the day, the country is to publish a report on consumer credit.



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