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Forex - AUD/USD weekly outlook: January 26 - 30

Published 01/25/2015, 09:48 AM
AUD/USD tumbles 3.9% last week
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Investing.com - The Australian dollar tumbled more than 1% against its U.S. counterpart on Friday to hit the lowest level in more than five years, as ongoing concerns over the health of the global economy boosted demand for safe haven assets.

AUD/USD fell to 0.7882 on Friday, a level not seen since July 2009, before subsequently consolidating at 0.7908 by close of trade on Friday, down 1.43% for the day and 3.88% lower for the week.

The pair is likely to find support at 0.7811, the low from July 14, 2009, and resistance at 0.8135, the high from January 22.

The Aussie was weighed after data on Friday showed that the preliminary reading of China’s HSBC manufacturing index inched up to 49.8 in January from 49.6 in December.

Despite the modest improvement, the figure held below the 50.0-level, which indicates contraction, for the second straight month, underlining concerns over a cooling economy.

The disappointing factory data came after data released earlier in the week showed that China’s economy grew 7.4% in 2014 from a year earlier, below the government's official target of 7.5% and the slowest pace since 1990. It expanded 7.7% in 2013.

The Asian nation is Australia's largest trade partner.

Elsewhere, EUR/AUD hit a daily low of 1.3968 on Friday, the weakest level since September 9, before ending at 1.4162, unchanged on the day.

The euro sold off after the European Central Bank unveiled a €1.2 trillion asset purchase program on Thursday. The central bank will purchase €60 billion in assets per month, starting in March and continuing until late 2016, to combat slowing growth and inflation in the euro area.

The single currency was also under pressure amid uncertainty over the outcome of Greek elections, due to be held on Sunday, with anti-bailout party Syriza leading in the polls.

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, rose to more than 11-year highs of 95.77 on Friday, before trimming gains to end at 95.32, up 0.69% for the day and 2.33% higher for the week.

In the week ahead, investors will be awaiting the outcome of Wednesday’s Federal Reserve policy meeting for further clarification on when interest rates might start to rise.

Friday’s preliminary data on U.S. fourth quarter growth will also be in focus, while the latest euro zone inflation data is also due out on Friday.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets. The guide skips Monday as there are no relevant events on this day.

Tuesday, January 27

Australia is to produce private sector data on consumer sentiment.

The U.S. is to release data on durable goods orders, as well as private sector reports on consumer confidence and new home sales.

Wednesday, January 28

Australia is to produce data on consumer inflation, which accounts for the majority of overall inflation.

The Federal Reserve is to announce its benchmark interest rate and publish its rate statement, which outlines economic conditions and the factors affecting the monetary policy decision.

Thursday, January 29

Australia is to publish a report on import prices.

Later Thursday, the U.S. is to publish the weekly report on initial jobless claims as well as private sector data on pending home sales.

Friday, January 30

Australia is to publish data on producer price inflation.

The U.S. is to round up the week with preliminary data on fourth quarter growth as well as reports on business activity in the Chicago region and revised data on consumer sentiment.

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